Tracking 0 sales in the last 90 days. We'll publish a confident 12-month outlook once 5 more sales close — at this market's typical pace, that's roughly 8 months.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 52 yr, 0k mi example, ~$10.9K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 15 scored forecasts: 20% got the direction right, median value error ±94%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. M2 Money Supply has historically led it by about 22 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE M2 Money Supply rose 9%. THEREFORE, given its usual 22-month head start, we lean DOWN — about −1% (≈ −$138) over the next 22 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation -0.73, 27 months overlap).
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (low conviction — 23% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by M2 Money Supply and LVMH (luxury proxy ADR), though LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) points the other way.
⚠ The price trend and leading indicators disagree — momentum may be running ahead of the fundamentals.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2006
$100K invested 2006-03 → today (20.6 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $9.9K━ S&P 500 $785K━ Gold $724K━ Luxury $979K━ Housing $185K
Lost ground to inflation. The Ford F-Series (1961-1966) roughly 0.1×'d your money (a real 94% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 99% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-95%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Trade-Weighted Dollar Index leads by about 16 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.78). Shown shifted forward 16 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford F-Series (1961-1966)┄ Trade-Weighted Dollar Index, shifted +16mo
Core CPI (ex food/energy) leads by about 0 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.77). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford F-Series (1961-1966)┄ Core CPI (ex food/energy), shifted +0mo
Bitcoin (USD) leads by about 18 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.77). Shown shifted forward 18 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford F-Series (1961-1966)┄ Bitcoin (USD), shifted +18mo
LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) leads by about 23 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.75). Shown shifted forward 23 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford F-Series (1961-1966)┄ LVMH (luxury proxy ADR), shifted +23mo
M2 Money Supply leads by about 22 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.73). Shown shifted forward 22 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford F-Series (1961-1966)┄ M2 Money Supply, shifted +22mo
Initial Jobless Claims leads by about 0 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.71). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford F-Series (1961-1966)┄ Initial Jobless Claims, shifted +0mo
30-Year Mortgage Rate leads by about 10 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.71). Shown shifted forward 10 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford F-Series (1961-1966)┄ 30-Year Mortgage Rate, shifted +10mo
Effective Fed Funds Rate leads by about 24 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.69). Shown shifted forward 24 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford F-Series (1961-1966)┄ Effective Fed Funds Rate, shifted +24mo
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
