Tracking 9 sales in the last 90 days — the modeled signal will appear here on the next nightly rebuild.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 52 yr, 0k mi example, ~$10.3K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 15 scored forecasts: 20% got the direction right, median value error ±94%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. M2 Money Supply has historically led it by about 22 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE M2 Money Supply rose 9%. THEREFORE, given its usual 22-month head start, we lean DOWN — about −1% (≈ −$141) over the next 22 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation -0.73, 27 months overlap).
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (moderate conviction — 47% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by M2 Money Supply and LVMH (luxury proxy ADR), though M2 Money Supply points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2006
$100K invested 2006-03 → today (20.4 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $9.3K━ S&P 500 $791K━ Gold $768K━ Luxury $1226K━ Housing $183K
Lost ground to inflation. The Ford F-Series (1961-1966) roughly 0.1×'d your money (a real 94% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 99% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-95%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Trade-Weighted Dollar Index leads by about 16 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.78). Shown shifted forward 16 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford F-Series (1961-1966)┄ Trade-Weighted Dollar Index, shifted +16mo
Core CPI (ex food/energy) leads by about 0 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.77). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford F-Series (1961-1966)┄ Core CPI (ex food/energy), shifted +0mo
Bitcoin (USD) leads by about 18 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.77). Shown shifted forward 18 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford F-Series (1961-1966)┄ Bitcoin (USD), shifted +18mo
LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) leads by about 23 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.75). Shown shifted forward 23 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford F-Series (1961-1966)┄ LVMH (luxury proxy ADR), shifted +23mo
M2 Money Supply leads by about 22 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.73). Shown shifted forward 22 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford F-Series (1961-1966)┄ M2 Money Supply, shifted +22mo
Initial Jobless Claims leads by about 0 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.71). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford F-Series (1961-1966)┄ Initial Jobless Claims, shifted +0mo
30-Year Mortgage Rate leads by about 10 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.71). Shown shifted forward 10 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford F-Series (1961-1966)┄ 30-Year Mortgage Rate, shifted +10mo
Effective Fed Funds Rate leads by about 24 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.69). Shown shifted forward 24 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford F-Series (1961-1966)┄ Effective Fed Funds Rate, shifted +24mo
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
