Tracking 3 sales in the last 90 days. We'll publish a confident 12-month outlook once 2 more sales close — at this market's typical pace, that's roughly ~2 months.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 52 yr, 32k mi example, ~$19.2K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Building historyNot enough data to chart yet — check back as sales accrue.
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 53 scored forecasts: 62% got the direction right, median value error ±63%.
Track record buildingNot enough graded forecasts yet to show accuracy.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 8 in 10
We replayed 54 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±28%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 8 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
Sold
Car
Our range
Hammer
2026-08-08
1970 · 94k mi
$9.3K–$34.2K
$19.0K
✓
2026-07-29
1969 · 8k mi
$11.5K–$42.2K
$17.8K
✓
2026-07-26
1972 · 35k mi
$10.3K–$37.8K
$21.0K
✓
2026-06-10
1973 · 27k mi
$11.0K–$40.4K
$35.3K
✓
2026-06-02
1973 · 0k mi
$11.4K–$42.0K
$8.6K
✗
2026-05-17
1972 · 67k mi
$9.3K–$34.3K
$24.1K
✓
2026-05-16
1971 · 1k mi
$12.1K–$44.5K
$19.9K
✓
2026-04-05
1973 · 32k mi
$11.4K–$41.8K
$19.5K
✓
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 1 open auction in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
Closes
Car
Source
Our predicted range
open
1974 · 20k mi
ebay
$9.0K–$48.4K ($20.9K)
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
If You’d Bought in 2015
$100K invested 2015-07 → today (11.2 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $58.4K━ S&P 500 $444K━ Gold $399K━ Luxury $395K━ Housing $193K₿ Bitcoin ×273 (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Lotus Europa roughly 0.6×'d your money (a real 58% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 87% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-70%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Real Disposable Income per Capita leads by about 23 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.72). Shown shifted forward 23 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Lotus Europa┄ Real Disposable Income per Capita, shifted +23mo
Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) leads by about 17 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.72). Shown shifted forward 17 months so its turns line up with the market's.
M2 Money Supply leads by about 10 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.71). Shown shifted forward 10 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Lotus Europa┄ M2 Money Supply, shifted +10mo
Nasdaq Composite leads by about 17 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.70). Shown shifted forward 17 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Lotus Europa┄ Nasdaq Composite, shifted +17mo
S&P 500 leads by about 17 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.70). Shown shifted forward 17 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Lotus Europa┄ S&P 500, shifted +17mo
Dow Jones Industrial leads by about 18 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.70). Shown shifted forward 18 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Lotus Europa┄ Dow Jones Industrial, shifted +18mo
U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment leads by about 7 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.69). Shown shifted forward 7 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Lotus Europa┄ U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment, shifted +7mo
CPI (All Urban Consumers) leads by about 14 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.69). Shown shifted forward 14 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
