Cadillac Escalade EXT (GMT800, 2002-2006)
Flagged undervalued because -72% vs 2-yr avg, inventory -1%, and sell-through 100%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 21 yr, 59k mi example, ~$9.3K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 33% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 6 scored forecasts: 33% got the direction right, median value error ±1078%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard live
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 5 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2004 · 48k mi | classic | $4.7K–$16.8K ($8.9K) |
| open | 2005 · 172k mi | classic | $2.8K–$10.0K ($5.3K) |
| open | 2003 · 143k mi | classic | $2.7K–$9.3K ($5.0K) |
| open | 2003 · 109k mi | classic | $3.2K–$11.3K ($6.0K) |
| open | 2004 · 129k mi | classic | $2.9K–$10.3K ($5.5K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 49% | Low | 42% |
| 12 mo | UP | 50% | Low | 33% |
| 24 mo | UP | 51% | Low | — |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Gold (futures) has historically led it by about 7 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 71% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Real Disposable Income per Capita and 10-Year Treasury Yield, though Real Disposable Income per Capita points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-07 → today (5.0 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Gold (futures) leads by about 7 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.92). Shown shifted forward 7 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Martin DB4 | 76 | 55 | 61 |
| Bentley Continental (S1, S2, S3) | 68 | 63 | 50 |
| Buick Riviera | 39 | 44 | 24 |
| Mercedes-Benz CL-Class | 51 | 71 | 41 |
| Mercedes-Benz CLK-Class | 38 | 44 | 47 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-3,000 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-3,000 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=5.5)
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.