Flagged undervalued because -10% vs 2-yr avg, and sell-through 89%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 21 yr, 65k mi example, ~$8.6K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 8 scored forecasts: 38% got the direction right, median value error ±626%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard live
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 1 open auction in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
Closes
Car
Source
Our predicted range
open
2004 · 48k mi
classic
$4.7K–$16.8K ($8.9K)
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
UP
51%
Low
43%
12 mo
UP
53%
Low
38%
24 mo
UP
54%
Low
—
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Gold (futures) has historically led it by about 7 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE gold fell 19%. THEREFORE, given its usual 7-month head start, we lean UP — about +8% (≈ +$645) over the next 7 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation -0.86, 20 months overlap).
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (low conviction — 1% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Real Disposable Income per Capita and Russell 2000 (small cap), though 10-Year Treasury Yield points the other way.
⚠ The price trend and leading indicators disagree — momentum may be running ahead of the fundamentals.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-07 → today (5.2 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $54.6K━ S&P 500 $191K━ Gold $241K━ Luxury $72.5K━ Housing $127K₿ Bitcoin $187K (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Cadillac Escalade EXT (GMT800, 2002-2006) roughly 0.5×'d your money (a real 56% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 71% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-57%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Gold (futures) leads by about 7 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.86). Shown shifted forward 7 months so its turns line up with the market's.
2-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 14 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.85). Shown shifted forward 14 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Personal Savings Rate leads by about 0 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.84). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
M2 Money Supply leads by about 4 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.83). Shown shifted forward 4 months so its turns line up with the market's.
PCE Price Index leads by about 14 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.82). Shown shifted forward 14 months so its turns line up with the market's.
10-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 14 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.81). Shown shifted forward 14 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Core CPI (ex food/energy) leads by about 16 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.81). Shown shifted forward 16 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Nonfarm Payrolls (jobs) leads by about 15 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.80). Shown shifted forward 15 months so its turns line up with the market's.
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-4,780 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$2,824 vs prior
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.