Blended value of a standard 3 yr, 25k mi example, ~$84.2K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
Closes
Car
Source
Our predicted range
open
2022 · 55k mi
ebay
$39.3K–$142K ($74.8K)
open
2023 · 28k mi
BaT
$45.2K–$164K ($86.1K)
open
2023 · 38k mi
ebay
$42.2K–$153K ($80.3K)
open
2022 · 62k mi
ebay
$38.4K–$139K ($73.1K)
open
2022 · 27k mi
ebay
$45.7K–$165K ($87.0K)
open
2022 · 55k mi
ebay
$39.4K–$143K ($75.0K)
open
2023 · 56k mi
ebay
$39.3K–$142K ($74.7K)
open
2026
C&B
$44.5K–$160K ($84.4K)
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
UP
49%
Low
60%
12 mo
UP
51%
Low
—
24 mo
UP
52%
Low
—
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Housing Starts has historically led it by about 14 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE Housing Starts fell 8%. THEREFORE, given its usual 14-month head start, we lean DOWN — about −2% (≈ −$1,680) over the next 14 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation +0.68, 21 months overlap).
If You’d Bought in 2022
$100K invested 2022-07 → today (4.2 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $62.9K━ S&P 500 $200K━ Gold $248K━ Luxury $80.9K━ Housing $110K₿ Bitcoin $333K (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Cadillac Escalade (2021+) roughly 0.6×'d your money (a real 44% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 68% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-43%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
US Regular Gas Price leads by about 15 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.75). Shown shifted forward 15 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Cadillac Escalade (2021+)┄ US Regular Gas Price, shifted +15mo
Unemployment Rate leads by about 18 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.73). Shown shifted forward 18 months so its turns line up with the market's.
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 7 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.69). Shown shifted forward 7 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Cadillac Escalade (2021+)┄ High-Yield Bond Spread, shifted +7mo
Effective Fed Funds Rate leads by about 3 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.69). Shown shifted forward 3 months so its turns line up with the market's.
30-Year Mortgage Rate leads by about 5 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.68). Shown shifted forward 5 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Housing Starts leads by about 14 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.68). Shown shifted forward 14 months so its turns line up with the market's.
10Y-2Y Yield Spread leads by about 10 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.66). Shown shifted forward 10 months so its turns line up with the market's.
2-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 5 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.66). Shown shifted forward 5 months so its turns line up with the market's.
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-18,118 vs prior
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-6.2)
price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=4.0)
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.