BMW E30 M3
Flagged undervalued because sell-through 97%, -22% vs 2-yr avg, and -23% vs 3-yr trend.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 36 yr, 97k mi example, ~$73.2K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 53% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 103 scored forecasts: 53% got the direction right, median value error ±38%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 284 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±17%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | 1988 · 77k mi | $42.6K–$155K | $84.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-04 | 1991 · 159k mi | $30.3K–$110K | $64.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-01 | 1990 · 121k mi | $34.0K–$124K | $75.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-29 | 1988 · 81k mi | $42.1K–$153K | $62.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-26 | 1988 · 109k mi | $36.2K–$132K | $50.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-21 | 1988 · 99k mi | $37.8K–$138K | $70.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-14 | 1989 · 76k mi | $43.5K–$159K | $93.7K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-08 | 1990 · 3k mi | $46.0K–$168K | $542K | ✗ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 1988 · 49k mi | ebay | $42.7K–$229K ($99.0K) |
| open | 1988 · 83k mi | classic | $33.9K–$182K ($78.6K) |
| open | 1989 · 115k mi | classic | $28.8K–$155K ($66.7K) |
| open | 1988 · 27k mi | classic | $51.0K–$274K ($118K) |
| open | 1990 · 68k mi | classic | $37.6K–$202K ($87.3K) |
| open | 1990 · 83k mi | classic | $34.0K–$183K ($78.8K) |
| open | 1987 · 75k mi | classic | $35.5K–$191K ($82.3K) |
| open | 1989 · 84k mi | classic | $33.6K–$181K ($77.9K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 54% | Low | 59% |
| 12 mo | UP | 56% | Low | 53% |
| 24 mo | UP | 59% | Low | 62% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (low conviction — 5% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Bitcoin (USD) and Real Disposable Income per Capita, though Trade-Weighted Dollar Index points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2014
$100K invested 2014-07 → today (12.1 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 5 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.83). Shown shifted forward 5 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alfa Romeo 105 Sedan | 66 | 43 | 36 |
| Mercedes-Benz 190SL | 41 | 45 | 54 |
| BMW 2002 tii | 47 | 56 | 20 |
| Datsun 240Z | 50 | 48 | 28 |
| Datsun 280Z | 38 | 64 | 52 |
| Ferrari 308 | 36 | 50 | 52 |
| Ferrari 308 GT4 | 54 | 47 | 16 |
| Ferrari 328 | 55 | 40 | 53 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$39,000 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-24,100 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$39,000 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-24,100 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$51,195 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-24,100 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.