BMW E30 M3
Flagged undervalued because -6% vs 2-yr avg, sell-through 96%, inventory -0%, and -3% vs 3-yr trend.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 36 yr, 98k mi example, ~$74.7K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 63% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 104 scored forecasts: 63% got the direction right, median value error ±32%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 293 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±18%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | 1989 · 184k mi | $29.5K–$108K | $43.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-17 | 1991 · 75k mi | $43.7K–$160K | $183K | ✗ |
| 2026-09-16 | 1987 · 100k mi | $37.7K–$138K | $89.4K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-15 | 1990 · 72k mi | $44.6K–$163K | $53.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-14 | 1990 · 59k mi | $48.0K–$176K | $77.6K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-11 | 1988 · 97k mi | $38.2K–$140K | $84.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-04 | 1990 · 185k mi | $29.4K–$108K | $71.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-29 | 1991 · 87k mi | $40.0K–$147K | $80.5K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 7 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 1988 | C&B | $32.0K–$174K ($74.7K) |
| open | 1988 | C&B | $32.0K–$173K ($74.4K) |
| open | 1990 · 68k mi | classic | $37.6K–$202K ($87.3K) |
| open | 1990 · 83k mi | classic | $34.0K–$183K ($78.8K) |
| open | 1987 · 75k mi | classic | $35.5K–$191K ($82.3K) |
| open | 1989 · 84k mi | classic | $33.6K–$181K ($77.9K) |
| open | 1988 · 162k mi | classic | $25.2K–$135K ($58.4K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 53% | Low | 55% |
| 12 mo | UP | 55% | Low | 63% |
| 24 mo | UP | 58% | Low | 70% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
If You’d Bought in 2014
$100K invested 2014-07 → today (12.2 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
PCE Price Index leads by about 13 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.87). Shown shifted forward 13 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alfa Romeo 105 Sedan | 84 | 22 | 32 |
| Mercedes-Benz 190SL | 51 | 40 | 56 |
| BMW 2002 tii | 60 | 33 | 13 |
| Datsun 240Z | 49 | 56 | 44 |
| Datsun 280Z | 48 | 45 | 59 |
| Ferrari 308 | 38 | 55 | 45 |
| Ferrari 308 GT4 | 54 | 47 | 15 |
| Ferrari 328 | 44 | 53 | 51 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- inventory shortage Inventory dropped (robust z=-4.4)
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-16,247 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$16,247 vs prior
- inventory shortage Inventory dropped (robust z=-4.0)
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-16,247 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$16,247 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.