Flagged undervalued because -100% vs 2-yr avg, and inventory +0%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 41 yr, 59k mi example, ~$6.6K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 6 scored forecasts: 50% got the direction right, median value error ±54416549%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard live
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 5 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
Closes
Car
Source
Our predicted range
open
1987 · 131k mi
ebay
$3.0K–$16.0K ($6.9K)
open
1985 · 46k mi
ebay
$3.0K–$16.0K ($6.9K)
open
1987 · 131k mi
ebay
$3.0K–$15.9K ($6.9K)
open
1987 · 131k mi
ebay
$5.3K–$27.8K ($12.1K)
open
1987 · 131k mi
ebay
$5.3K–$27.9K ($12.1K)
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
UP
58%
Low
83%
12 mo
UP
61%
Low
50%
24 mo
UP
66%
Low
—
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Silver has historically led it by about 24 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE Silver rose 114%. THEREFORE, given its usual 24-month head start, we lean DOWN — about −3% (≈ −$189) over the next 24 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation -0.64, 18 months overlap).
If You’d Bought in 2014
$100K invested 2014-03 → today (12.3 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $1.8K━ S&P 500 $490K━ Gold $320K━ Luxury $526K━ Housing $205K
Lost ground to inflation. The BMW 6 Series (E24) roughly 0.0×'d your money (a real 99% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 100% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-99%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 20 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.70). Shown shifted forward 20 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ BMW 6 Series (E24)┄ Case-Shiller National Home Price, shifted +20mo
Unemployment Rate leads by about 21 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.69). Shown shifted forward 21 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ BMW 6 Series (E24)┄ Unemployment Rate, shifted +21mo
Initial Jobless Claims leads by about 15 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.64). Shown shifted forward 15 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ BMW 6 Series (E24)┄ Initial Jobless Claims, shifted +15mo
Silver leads by about 24 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.64). Shown shifted forward 24 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ BMW 6 Series (E24)┄ Silver, shifted +24mo
M2 Money Supply leads by about 24 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.63). Shown shifted forward 24 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ BMW 6 Series (E24)┄ M2 Money Supply, shifted +24mo
Nonfarm Payrolls (jobs) leads by about 15 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.61). Shown shifted forward 15 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ BMW 6 Series (E24)┄ Nonfarm Payrolls (jobs), shifted +15mo
Dow Jones Industrial leads by about 2 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.60). Shown shifted forward 2 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ BMW 6 Series (E24)┄ Dow Jones Industrial, shifted +2mo
Real Disposable Income per Capita leads by about 1 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.60). Shown shifted forward 1 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ BMW 6 Series (E24)┄ Real Disposable Income per Capita, shifted +1mo
Why We Think This
Appreciation Momentum
52
Undervaluation
75
Liquidity
21
Speculation Opportunity
76
Depreciation Risk
50
Overvaluation
81
-100% vs 2-yr avgpct vs trailing 24mo
inventory +0%inventory trend slope
-100% vs 12-mo avgpct vs trailing 12mo
sale prices +3.6%/momedian sale trend slope
226 days on marketmedian days on market
new-listing velocity 7% of activenew listing velocity
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.