Tracking 1 sale in the last 90 days. We'll publish a confident 12-month outlook once 4 more sales close — at this market's typical pace, that's roughly ~2.3 years.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 45 yr, 10k mi example, ~$12.4K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Building historyNot enough data to chart yet — check back as sales accrue.
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 4 scored forecasts: 75% got the direction right, median value error ±118797%.
Track record buildingNot enough graded forecasts yet to show accuracy.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard live
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
Closes
Car
Source
Our predicted range
open
1987 · 131k mi
ebay
$4.4K–$23.8K ($10.2K)
open
1987 · 131k mi
ebay
$4.4K–$23.9K ($10.2K)
open
1987 · 131k mi
ebay
$4.5K–$24.2K ($10.4K)
open
1987 · 131k mi
ebay
$4.4K–$23.7K ($10.2K)
open
1987 · 131k mi
ebay
$4.4K–$23.6K ($10.2K)
open
1987 · 131k mi
ebay
$4.4K–$23.8K ($10.2K)
open
1987 · 131k mi
ebay
$4.4K–$23.8K ($10.2K)
open
1987 · 131k mi
ebay
$4.6K–$24.7K ($10.6K)
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
If You’d Bought in 2014
$100K invested 2014-03 → today (12.5 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $3.3K━ S&P 500 $503K━ Gold $340K━ Luxury $465K━ Housing $209K
Lost ground to inflation. The BMW 6 Series (E24) roughly 0.0×'d your money (a real 98% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 99% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-98%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Trade-Weighted Dollar Index leads by about 13 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.81). Shown shifted forward 13 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ BMW 6 Series (E24)┄ Trade-Weighted Dollar Index, shifted +13mo
Nonfarm Payrolls (jobs) leads by about 20 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.81). Shown shifted forward 20 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ BMW 6 Series (E24)┄ Nonfarm Payrolls (jobs), shifted +20mo
Real Disposable Income per Capita leads by about 3 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.79). Shown shifted forward 3 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ BMW 6 Series (E24)┄ Real Disposable Income per Capita, shifted +3mo
Initial Jobless Claims leads by about 15 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.78). Shown shifted forward 15 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ BMW 6 Series (E24)┄ Initial Jobless Claims, shifted +15mo
Nasdaq Composite leads by about 1 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.78). Shown shifted forward 1 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ BMW 6 Series (E24)┄ Nasdaq Composite, shifted +1mo
Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) leads by about 1 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.78). Shown shifted forward 1 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ BMW 6 Series (E24)┄ Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY), shifted +1mo
Dow Jones Industrial leads by about 2 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.78). Shown shifted forward 2 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ BMW 6 Series (E24)┄ Dow Jones Industrial, shifted +2mo
Advance Retail Sales leads by about 20 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.78). Shown shifted forward 20 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ BMW 6 Series (E24)┄ Advance Retail Sales, shifted +20mo
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
