Ford Deluxe / Special Deluxe
Flagged undervalued because -23% vs 2-yr avg, and -23% vs 3-yr trend.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 80 yr, 11k mi example, ~$23.1K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 62% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 146 scored forecasts: 62% got the direction right, median value error ±25%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 7 in 10
We replayed 263 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±40%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 7 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | 1946 · 8k mi | $14.4K–$52.9K | $40.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-18 | 1940 · 22k mi | $15.3K–$56.2K | $14.5K | ✗ |
| 2026-05-16 | 1939 · 0k mi | $18.5K–$68.0K | $33.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-15 | 1942 · 14k mi | $14.1K–$51.8K | $15.6K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-13 | 1939 · 2k mi | $17.8K–$65.4K | $38.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-13 | 1940 · 28k mi | $15.4K–$56.5K | $33.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-13 | 1940 · 17k mi | $14.7K–$53.7K | $29.7K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-12 | 1946 · 0k mi | $18.5K–$68.0K | $14.3K | ✗ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 1940 · 13k mi | ebay | $10.4K–$55.9K ($24.1K) |
| open | 1947 | ebay | $10.0K–$53.7K ($23.1K) |
| open | 1941 | BaT | $10.0K–$53.7K ($23.1K) |
| open | 1947 · 52k mi | ebay | $9.4K–$50.6K ($21.8K) |
| open | 1940 · 1k mi | ebay | $13.4K–$72.3K ($31.2K) |
| open | 1940 · 17k mi | ebay | $10.9K–$58.4K ($25.2K) |
| open | 1946 · 13k mi | ebay | $10.4K–$55.9K ($24.1K) |
| open | 1939 | BaT | $10.0K–$53.8K ($23.2K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 48% | Low | 69% |
| 12 mo | DOWN | 52% | Low | 62% |
| 24 mo | DOWN | 52% | Low | 61% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. High-Yield Bond Spread has historically led it by about 4 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (low conviction — 20% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Ethereum (USD) and Trade-Weighted Dollar Index, though Trade-Weighted Dollar Index points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2005
$100K invested 2005-08 → today (20.9 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 4 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.66). Shown shifted forward 4 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alfa Romeo 105 Sedan | 93 | 93 | 17 |
| Mercedes-Benz 190SL | 38 | 43 | 39 |
| BMW 2002 tii | 46 | 74 | 20 |
| Datsun 240Z | 41 | 56 | 38 |
| Datsun 280Z | 32 | 66 | 60 |
| Ferrari 308 | 38 | 64 | 34 |
| Ferrari 308 GT4 | 51 | 54 | 26 |
| Ferrari 328 | 58 | 46 | 42 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=4.4)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=4.4)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=27.3)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-33.7)
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.