Blended value of a standard 4 yr, 12k mi example, ~$88.1K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
Closes
Car
Source
Our predicted range
open
2022 · 16k mi
classic
$51.3K–$184K ($97.3K)
open
2021 · 39k mi
classic
$44.2K–$159K ($83.8K)
open
2021 · 44k mi
classic
$44.0K–$158K ($83.4K)
open
2021 · 66k mi
classic
$42.5K–$153K ($80.5K)
open
2022 · 24k mi
classic
$49.5K–$177K ($93.7K)
open
2021 · 53k mi
classic
$44.9K–$161K ($85.0K)
open
2021 · 27k mi
classic
$48.5K–$173K ($91.6K)
open
2021 · 9k mi
classic
$58.3K–$208K ($110K)
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
DOWN
52%
Low
0%
12 mo
DOWN
51%
Low
—
24 mo
DOWN
51%
Low
—
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Unemployment Rate has historically led it by about 11 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE Unemployment Rate rose 2%. THEREFORE, given its usual 11-month head start, we lean UP — about +2% (≈ +$1,409) over the next 11 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation +0.77, 18 months overlap).
If You’d Bought in 2023
$100K invested 2023-06 → today (3.1 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $70.2K━ S&P 500 $178K━ Gold $214K━ Luxury $65.0K━ Housing $107K₿ Bitcoin $195K (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Aston Martin DBX roughly 0.7×'d your money (a real 36% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 60% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-34%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Unemployment Rate leads by about 11 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.77). Shown shifted forward 11 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Aston Martin DBX┄ Unemployment Rate, shifted +11mo
VIX Volatility Index leads by about 11 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.74). Shown shifted forward 11 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Aston Martin DBX┄ VIX Volatility Index, shifted +11mo
Ethereum (USD) leads by about 0 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.73). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Aston Martin DBX┄ Ethereum (USD), shifted +0mo
PCE Price Index leads by about 18 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.71). Shown shifted forward 18 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Aston Martin DBX┄ PCE Price Index, shifted +18mo
Effective Fed Funds Rate leads by about 14 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.70). Shown shifted forward 14 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Aston Martin DBX┄ Effective Fed Funds Rate, shifted +14mo
S&P 500 leads by about 11 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.70). Shown shifted forward 11 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Aston Martin DBX┄ S&P 500, shifted +11mo
U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment leads by about 10 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.68). Shown shifted forward 10 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Aston Martin DBX┄ U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment, shifted +10mo
LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) leads by about 19 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.68). Shown shifted forward 19 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Aston Martin DBX┄ LVMH (luxury proxy ADR), shifted +19mo
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=7.2)
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=6.7)
price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-15.8)
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.