Blended value of a standard 4 yr, 12k mi example, ~$93.4K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
Closes
Car
Source
Our predicted range
open
2023 · 10k mi
classic
$57.0K–$207K ($109K)
open
2022 · 10k mi
classic
$56.6K–$205K ($108K)
open
2022 · 26k mi
classic
$48.8K–$177K ($93.0K)
open
2021 · 40k mi
classic
$45.3K–$164K ($86.3K)
open
2023 · 42k mi
classic
$43.8K–$158K ($83.3K)
open
2021 · 35k mi
classic
$44.4K–$161K ($84.5K)
open
2022 · 17k mi
classic
$51.0K–$185K ($97.1K)
open
2021 · 20k mi
classic
$49.4K–$179K ($93.9K)
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
DOWN
51%
Low
0%
12 mo
DOWN
50%
Low
—
24 mo
DOWN
50%
Low
—
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. VIX Volatility Index has historically led it by about 11 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE market volatility (VIX) fell 12%. THEREFORE, given its usual 11-month head start, we lean DOWN — about −2% (≈ −$1,894) over the next 11 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation +0.77, 22 months overlap).
If You’d Bought in 2023
$100K invested 2023-06 → today (3.2 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $77.7K━ S&P 500 $184K━ Gold $233K━ Luxury $63.9K━ Housing $109K₿ Bitcoin $208K (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Aston Martin DBX roughly 0.8×'d your money (a real 29% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 58% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-28%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
VIX Volatility Index leads by about 11 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.77). Shown shifted forward 11 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Aston Martin DBX┄ VIX Volatility Index, shifted +11mo
S&P 500 leads by about 11 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.73). Shown shifted forward 11 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Aston Martin DBX┄ S&P 500, shifted +11mo
Unemployment Rate leads by about 11 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.72). Shown shifted forward 11 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Aston Martin DBX┄ Unemployment Rate, shifted +11mo
U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment leads by about 10 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.71). Shown shifted forward 10 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Aston Martin DBX┄ U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment, shifted +10mo
Nasdaq Composite leads by about 11 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.70). Shown shifted forward 11 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Aston Martin DBX┄ Nasdaq Composite, shifted +11mo
2-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 18 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.69). Shown shifted forward 18 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Aston Martin DBX┄ 2-Year Treasury Yield, shifted +18mo
Ethereum (USD) leads by about 1 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.69). Shown shifted forward 1 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Aston Martin DBX┄ Ethereum (USD), shifted +1mo
PCE Price Index leads by about 18 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.68). Shown shifted forward 18 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Aston Martin DBX┄ PCE Price Index, shifted +18mo
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$24,321 vs prior
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$24,321 vs prior
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-25,600 vs prior
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.