Aston Martin DBS
Flagged undervalued because -7% vs 2-yr avg, inventory -0%, and +3% vs 3-yr trend.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 54 yr, 45k mi example, ~$104K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 44% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 54 scored forecasts: 44% got the direction right, median value error ±97%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 77 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±28%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | 1969 · 19k mi | $59.5K–$218K | $129K | ✓ |
| 2026-03-18 | 1972 · 69k mi | $51.1K–$187K | $98.1K | ✓ |
| 2025-07-08 | 1971 · 65k mi | $22.1K–$81.1K | $86.0K | ✗ |
| 2025-01-25 | 1972 · 41k mi | $27.6K–$101K | $35.8K | ✓ |
| 2024-09-07 | 1970 · 46k mi | $29.2K–$107K | $196K | ✗ |
| 2024-08-29 | 1970 · 69k mi | $27.3K–$100K | $62.7K | ✓ |
| 2024-08-22 | 1969 · 31k mi | $34.3K–$126K | $117K | ✓ |
| 2024-08-16 | 1971 · 40k mi | $33.8K–$124K | $50.4K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 1 open auction in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 1972 | classic | $48.2K–$255K ($111K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | DOWN | 50% | Low | 60% |
| 12 mo | UP | 51% | Low | 44% |
| 24 mo | UP | 52% | Low | 50% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment has historically led it by about 19 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
If You’d Bought in 2005
$100K invested 2005-09 → today (21.0 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 1 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.55). Shown shifted forward 1 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alfa Romeo 105 Sedan | 84 | 22 | 40 |
| Mercedes-Benz 190SL | 51 | 40 | 57 |
| BMW 2002 tii | 58 | 33 | 17 |
| Datsun 240Z | 48 | 56 | 43 |
| Datsun 280Z | 47 | 45 | 53 |
| Ferrari 308 | 38 | 55 | 48 |
| Ferrari 308 GT4 | 54 | 47 | 13 |
| Ferrari 328 | 44 | 53 | 49 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- inventory shortage Inventory dropped (robust z=-4.5)
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.