Flagged undervalued because -44% vs 2-yr avg, -34% vs 3-yr trend, and sell-through 100%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 57 yr, 57k mi example, ~$25.0K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 20 scored forecasts: 65% got the direction right, median value error ±59%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard live
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 5 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
Closes
Car
Source
Our predicted range
open
1970 · 57k mi
BaT
$7.7K–$41.6K ($17.8K)
open
1969
C&B
$8.0K–$43.1K ($18.5K)
open
1967
classic
$6.6K–$34.7K ($15.1K)
open
1968 · 18k mi
classic
$6.6K–$34.7K ($15.1K)
open
1970
classic
$6.6K–$34.7K ($15.1K)
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
UP
54%
Low
65%
12 mo
UP
55%
Low
65%
24 mo
UP
58%
Low
25%
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Bitcoin (USD) has historically led it by about 10 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE bitcoin fell 8%. THEREFORE, given its usual 10-month head start, we lean UP — about +2% (≈ +$601) over the next 10 months. Confidence: High (correlation +0.58, 33 months overlap).
If You’d Bought in 2012
$100K invested 2012-01 → today (14.7 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $223K━ S&P 500 $758K━ Gold $251K━ Luxury $587K━ Housing $251K
Solid store of value, but lagged the stock market. The Datsun Roadster (Fairlady) roughly 2.2×'d your money (a real, inflation-adjusted 1.5× gain). It LAGGED the stock market by about 71% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-11%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Bitcoin (USD) leads by about 10 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.58). Shown shifted forward 10 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Bitcoin (USD) leads by about 13 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.58). Shown shifted forward 13 months so its turns line up with the market's.
30-Year Mortgage Rate leads by about 3 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.57). Shown shifted forward 3 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Ethereum (USD) leads by about 13 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.56). Shown shifted forward 13 months so its turns line up with the market's.
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 3 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.55). Shown shifted forward 3 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Datsun Roadster (Fairlady)┄ High-Yield Bond Spread, shifted +3mo
Russell 2000 (small cap) leads by about 12 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.55). Shown shifted forward 12 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Datsun Roadster (Fairlady)┄ Russell 2000 (small cap), shifted +12mo
Russell 2000 (small cap) leads by about 0 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.54). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Datsun Roadster (Fairlady)┄ Russell 2000 (small cap), shifted +0mo
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 8 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.53). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Datsun Roadster (Fairlady)┄ Case-Shiller National Home Price, shifted +8mo
Why We Think This
Appreciation Momentum
28
Undervaluation
67
Liquidity
57
Speculation Opportunity
41
Depreciation Risk
62
Overvaluation
17
-44% vs 2-yr avgpct vs trailing 24mo
-34% vs 3-yr trendpct vs trailing 36mo
inventory +1%inventory trend slope
-30% vs 12-mo avgpct vs trailing 12mo
sale prices -1.2%/momedian sale trend slope
sell-through 100%sell through rate
new-listing velocity 0% of activenew listing velocity
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.