Shelby Cobra Replica
The Shelby Cobra Replica market currently signals moderate overvaluation at 52.71 and a depreciation risk of 52.13, with appreciation momentum at 40.38. A volatile 6-month horizon indicates a downward direction with 0.5 probability, while the 12 and 24-month outlooks show an upward direction with 0.5 and 0.51 probabilities respectively. WTI Crude Oil, with a -0.54 correlation and 11-month lead, is the strongest identified leading indicator.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 59 yr, 3k mi example, ~$66.4K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 56% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 149 scored forecasts: 56% got the direction right, median value error ±43%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 8 in 10
We replayed 199 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±32%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 8 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | 1965 · 2k mi | $37.1K–$135K | $127K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-25 | 1965 · 3k mi | $36.0K–$132K | $82.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-24 | 1965 · 8k mi | $37.2K–$136K | $64.9K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-24 | 2017 · 0k mi | $40.3K–$147K | $61.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-23 | 1965 · 0k mi | $40.3K–$147K | $51.7K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-23 | 1965 · 0k mi | $40.3K–$147K | $42.9K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-23 | 1965 · 0k mi | $40.3K–$147K | $42.9K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-23 | 1965 · 6k mi | $36.4K–$133K | $34.1K | ✗ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 1965 · 5k mi | ebay | $28.8K–$155K ($66.8K) |
| open | 1965 · 5k mi | ebay | $28.8K–$155K ($66.7K) |
| open | 1965 · 5k mi | ebay | $28.8K–$155K ($66.7K) |
| open | 1965 | ebay | $28.6K–$154K ($66.3K) |
| open | 1965 · 5k mi | ebay | $29.2K–$157K ($67.7K) |
| open | 1989 · 1k mi | classic | $31.8K–$171K ($73.6K) |
| open | 1965 · 0k mi | classic | $34.4K–$185K ($79.7K) |
| open | 1962 · 0k mi | classic | $34.4K–$185K ($79.7K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 50% | Low | 66% |
| 12 mo | DOWN | 50% | Low | 56% |
| 24 mo | DOWN | 49% | Low | 55% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. High-Yield Bond Spread has historically led it by about 20 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
If You’d Bought in 2004
$100K invested 2004-08 → today (22.0 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 20 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.53). Shown shifted forward 20 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alfa Romeo 105 Sedan | 66 | 43 | 36 |
| Mercedes-Benz 190SL | 41 | 45 | 54 |
| BMW 2002 tii | 47 | 56 | 20 |
| Datsun 240Z | 50 | 48 | 28 |
| Datsun 280Z | 38 | 64 | 52 |
| Ferrari 308 | 36 | 50 | 52 |
| Ferrari 308 GT4 | 54 | 47 | 16 |
| Ferrari 328 | 55 | 40 | 53 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- inventory shortage Inventory dropped (robust z=-3.1)
- inventory shortage Inventory dropped (robust z=-3.5)
- inventory shortage Inventory dropped (robust z=-3.3)
- inventory shortage Inventory dropped (robust z=-3.4)
- inventory shortage Inventory dropped (robust z=-3.3)
- inventory shortage Inventory dropped (robust z=-3.4)
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.