Aston Martin DB5
This is a rare market — roughly 4.2 sale per year documented since 2004 (92 total across all sources).
Tracking 1 sale in the last 90 days. We'll publish a confident 12-month outlook once 4 more sales close — at this market's typical pace, that's roughly 11 months.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 59 yr, 57k mi example, ~$563K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 80% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 10 scored forecasts: 80% got the direction right, median value error ±22%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 7 in 10
We replayed 38 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±33%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 7 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly low on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-01 | 1964 · 12k mi | $343K–$902K | $782K | ✓ |
| 2024-11-23 | 1965 · 63k mi | $302K–$794K | $732K | ✓ |
| 2024-11-02 | 1964 · 82k mi | $264K–$693K | $733K | ✗ |
| 2024-08-30 | 1964 · 27k mi | $326K–$857K | $864K | ✗ |
| 2024-08-17 | 1965 · 51k mi | $307K–$806K | $1160K | ✗ |
| 2024-08-17 | 1965 · 92k mi | $248K–$652K | $940K | ✗ |
| 2024-07-22 | 1965 · 9k mi | $430K–$1131K | $373K | ✗ |
| 2024-06-12 | 1964 · 22k mi | $426K–$1120K | $548K | ✓ |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 72% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) and S&P 500, though LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2005
$100K invested 2005-06 → today (21.0 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 16 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.84). Shown shifted forward 16 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Martin DB4 | 57 | 56 | 8 |
| Bentley Continental (S1, S2, S3) | 69 | 47 | 67 |
| Buick Riviera | 38 | 38 | 22 |
| Bentley Continental GT (2004-2011) | 37 | 42 | 31 |
| Bentley Continental GTC (2012-2018) | 33 | 42 | 31 |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.