Chevrolet Caprice
This is a low-confidence read for the Chevrolet Caprice market due to thin data. Indicators show appreciation momentum at 41.02 and depreciation risk at 63.87, with liquidity at 31.7. The High-Yield Bond Spread is the strongest leading indicator, correlating at 0.54 with an 8-month lead, and current forecasts suggest a volatile regime with probabilities ranging from 0.49 to 0.51 for an upward direction over 6 to 24 months.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 44 yr, 50k mi example, ~$14.4K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 59% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 101 scored forecasts: 59% got the direction right, median value error ±30%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 6 in 10
We replayed 147 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±50%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 6 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-24 | 1974 · 70k mi | $7.2K–$26.4K | $20.1K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-22 | 1989 | $6.6K–$35.0K | $9.4K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-22 | 1989 · 93k mi | $5.4K–$19.6K | $8.8K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-13 | 1996 · 210k mi | $5.8K–$21.3K | $3.9K | ✗ |
| 2026-06-02 | 1983 · 64k mi | $7.9K–$29.0K | $15.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-15 | 1975 · 58k mi | $7.8K–$28.7K | $38.5K | ✗ |
| 2026-05-12 | 1989 · 12k mi | $11.9K–$43.7K | $6.6K | ✗ |
| 2026-05-06 | 1981 · 2k mi | $12.0K–$44.0K | $35.0K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 1972 · 45k mi | ebay | $6.3K–$33.8K ($14.6K) |
| open | 1966 · 60k mi | classic | $6.1K–$32.8K ($14.2K) |
| open | 1993 · 252k mi | ebay | $4.3K–$23.3K ($10.0K) |
| open | 1988 · 94k mi | ebay | $4.0K–$21.2K ($9.2K) |
| open | 1978 · 129k mi | ebay | $3.4K–$18.4K ($8.0K) |
| open | 1987 · 25k mi | ebay | $7.9K–$42.4K ($18.3K) |
| open | 1972 · 45k mi | ebay | $6.6K–$35.4K ($15.3K) |
| open | 1966 | hagerty | $6.5K–$35.1K ($15.1K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 50% | Low | 67% |
| 12 mo | UP | 50% | Low | 59% |
| 24 mo | UP | 51% | Low | 60% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. High-Yield Bond Spread has historically led it by about 8 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (low conviction — 21% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Dow Jones Industrial and Trade-Weighted Dollar Index, though Trade-Weighted Dollar Index points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2007
$100K invested 2007-07 → today (19.0 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 8 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.53). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alfa Romeo 105 Sedan | 93 | 93 | 17 |
| Mercedes-Benz 190SL | 38 | 43 | 39 |
| BMW 2002 tii | 46 | 74 | 20 |
| Datsun 240Z | 41 | 56 | 38 |
| Datsun 280Z | 32 | 66 | 60 |
| Ferrari 308 | 38 | 64 | 34 |
| Ferrari 308 GT4 | 51 | 54 | 26 |
| Ferrari 328 | 58 | 46 | 42 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$39,501 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$39,501 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$39,501 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-4,996 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$16,922 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-4,996 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.