Tracking 0 sales in the last 90 days. We'll publish a confident 12-month outlook once 5 more sales close — at this market's typical pace, that's roughly ~2 months.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 54 yr, 9k mi example, ~$4.5K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 22 scored forecasts: 64% got the direction right, median value error ±43%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Initial Jobless Claims has historically led it by about 5 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE Initial Jobless Claims rose 3%. THEREFORE, given its usual 5-month head start, we lean UP — about +1% (≈ +$60) over the next 5 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation +0.46, 24 months overlap).
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (low conviction — 20% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Housing Starts and Initial Jobless Claims, though Initial Jobless Claims points the other way.
Trend and leading indicators agree — both point down. Higher-conviction read.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2014
$100K invested 2014-01 → today (12.6 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $57.1K━ S&P 500 $544K━ Gold $360K━ Luxury $545K━ Housing $210K
Lost ground to inflation. The Honda CB450/CL450/CB500 Twin roughly 0.6×'d your money (a real 60% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 90% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-73%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Initial Jobless Claims leads by about 5 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.46). Shown shifted forward 5 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Housing Starts leads by about 10 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.46). Shown shifted forward 10 months so its turns line up with the market's.
US Metro Mean Temperature leads by about 11 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.46). Shown shifted forward 11 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Honda CB450/CL450/CB500 Twin┄ US Metro Mean Temperature, shifted +11mo
Gold (futures) leads by about 8 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.44). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) leads by about 16 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.42). Shown shifted forward 16 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Initial Jobless Claims leads by about 11 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.41). Shown shifted forward 11 months so its turns line up with the market's.
WTI Crude Oil leads by about 3 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.41). Shown shifted forward 3 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
