Tracking 3 sales in the last 90 days. We'll publish a confident 12-month outlook once 2 more sales close — at this market's typical pace, that's roughly ~4 months.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 60 yr, 2k mi example, ~$7.2K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 32 scored forecasts: 56% got the direction right, median value error ±104%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard live
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 3 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
Closes
Car
Source
Our predicted range
open
1966 · 1k mi
classic
$4.4K–$23.5K ($10.2K)
open
1963 · 27k mi
classic
$3.1K–$16.2K ($7.0K)
open
1966 · 4k mi
classic
$4.3K–$22.7K ($9.9K)
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) has historically led it by about 2 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE luxury-goods demand fell 4%. THEREFORE, given its usual 2-month head start, we expect little change — about −0% (≈ −$12) over the next 2 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation +0.43, 34 months overlap).
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (moderate conviction — 51% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Effective Fed Funds Rate and Initial Jobless Claims, though Initial Jobless Claims points the other way.
⚠ The price trend and leading indicators disagree — momentum may be running ahead of the fundamentals.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2006
$100K invested 2006-07 → today (20.1 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $41.0K━ S&P 500 $868K━ Gold $704K━ Luxury $1338K━ Housing $182K
Lost ground to inflation. The Triumph Bonneville T120 roughly 0.4×'d your money (a real 75% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 95% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-77%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Ethereum (USD) leads by about 11 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.56). Shown shifted forward 11 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Bitcoin (USD) leads by about 7 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.43). Shown shifted forward 7 months so its turns line up with the market's.
LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) leads by about 2 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.43). Shown shifted forward 2 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Effective Fed Funds Rate leads by about 10 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.43). Shown shifted forward 10 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Bitcoin (USD) leads by about 21 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.41). Shown shifted forward 21 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Core CPI (ex food/energy) leads by about 22 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.41). Shown shifted forward 22 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Triumph Bonneville T120┄ Core CPI (ex food/energy), shifted +22mo
WTI Crude Oil leads by about 0 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.40). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Personal Savings Rate leads by about 3 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.40). Shown shifted forward 3 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Triumph Bonneville T120┄ Personal Savings Rate, shifted +3mo
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
