BMW M6 (E24)
Due to a thin data state, this read on the BMW M6 (E24) market is low-confidence. The market shows a low liquidity score of 36.58 and moderate overvaluation at 60.57, yet indicates a slight upward probability in value, reaching 0.57 over 24 months, within a volatile regime. The Dow Jones Industrial index is the strongest leading indicator, correlating at 0.86 with a 6-month lead.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 37 yr, 85k mi example, ~$49.0K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 67% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 63 scored forecasts: 67% got the direction right, median value error ±73%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 93 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±22%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 1988 · 68k mi | $25.5K–$93.2K | $60.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-03-11 | 1988 · 56k mi | $26.9K–$98.3K | $52.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-03-08 | 1988 · 86k mi | $24.1K–$88.1K | $31.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-02-25 | 1987 · 91k mi | $24.1K–$87.8K | $42.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-02-13 | 1987 · 13k mi | $30.9K–$113K | $88.1K | ✓ |
| 2026-01-09 | 1988 · 183k mi | $17.9K–$65.3K | $30.0K | ✓ |
| 2025-12-30 | 1987 · 98k mi | $22.8K–$83.4K | $47.0K | ✓ |
| 2025-11-04 | 1987 · 85k mi | $24.0K–$87.7K | $46.3K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 1988 · 71k mi | ebay | $22.1K–$119K ($51.3K) |
| open | 1987 · 127k mi | BaT | $17.5K–$94.0K ($40.5K) |
| open | 1988 · 71k mi | ebay | $22.2K–$119K ($51.4K) |
| open | 1987 · 11k mi | classic | $27.4K–$147K ($63.6K) |
| open | 1988 · 79k mi | classic | $21.4K–$115K ($49.7K) |
| open | 1987 · 112k mi | classic | $17.9K–$94.7K ($41.2K) |
| open | 1988 · 64k mi | classic | $21.5K–$114K ($49.5K) |
| open | 1987 · 100k mi | classic | $19.1K–$101K ($43.9K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 53% | Low | 52% |
| 12 mo | UP | 55% | Low | 67% |
| 24 mo | UP | 57% | Low | 67% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Ethereum (USD) has historically led it by about 4 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (moderate conviction — 53% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Ethereum (USD) and Personal Savings Rate, though Nasdaq Composite points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2012
$100K invested 2012-09 → today (13.9 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 7 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.75). Shown shifted forward 7 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alfa Romeo 105 Sedan | 66 | 43 | 36 |
| Mercedes-Benz 190SL | 41 | 45 | 54 |
| BMW 2002 tii | 47 | 56 | 20 |
| Datsun 240Z | 50 | 48 | 28 |
| Datsun 280Z | 38 | 64 | 52 |
| Ferrari 308 | 36 | 50 | 52 |
| Ferrari 308 GT4 | 54 | 47 | 16 |
| Ferrari 328 | 55 | 40 | 53 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=13.2)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-8.2)
- inventory spike Inventory spiked (robust z=4.4)
- inventory spike Inventory spiked (robust z=3.0)
- inventory spike Inventory spiked (robust z=4.3)
- inventory spike Inventory spiked (robust z=7.4)
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.