Tracking 0 sales in the last 90 days. We'll publish a confident 12-month outlook once 5 more sales close — at this market's typical pace, that's roughly ~1.6 years.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 46 yr, 40k mi example, ~$214K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Building historyNot enough data to chart yet — check back as sales accrue.
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 5 scored forecasts: 0% got the direction right, median value error ±30870733%.
Track record buildingNot enough graded forecasts yet to show accuracy.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Bitcoin (USD) has historically led it by about 21 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE bitcoin fell 11%. THEREFORE, given its usual 21-month head start, we lean UP — about +1% (≈ +$2,117) over the next 21 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation +0.62, 20 months overlap).
If You’d Bought in 2012
$100K invested 2012-06 → today (14.2 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $246K━ S&P 500 $725K━ Gold $272K━ Luxury $613K━ Housing $235K
Solid store of value, but lagged the stock market. The BMW 3.0 CSL roughly 2.5×'d your money (a real, inflation-adjusted 1.7× gain). It LAGGED the stock market by about 66% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It beat housing (+5%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Bitcoin (USD) leads by about 23 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.75). Shown shifted forward 23 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ BMW 3.0 CSL┄ Bitcoin (USD), shifted +23mo
Gold (futures) leads by about 20 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.72). Shown shifted forward 20 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ BMW 3.0 CSL┄ Gold (futures), shifted +20mo
Silver leads by about 20 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.72). Shown shifted forward 20 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ BMW 3.0 CSL┄ Silver, shifted +20mo
10-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 2 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.66). Shown shifted forward 2 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ BMW 3.0 CSL┄ 10-Year Treasury Yield, shifted +2mo
30-Year Mortgage Rate leads by about 1 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.64). Shown shifted forward 1 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ BMW 3.0 CSL┄ 30-Year Mortgage Rate, shifted +1mo
U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment leads by about 20 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.63). Shown shifted forward 20 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ BMW 3.0 CSL┄ U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment, shifted +20mo
US Regular Gas Price leads by about 12 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.63). Shown shifted forward 12 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ BMW 3.0 CSL┄ US Regular Gas Price, shifted +12mo
Bitcoin (USD) leads by about 21 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.62). Shown shifted forward 21 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
