Tracking 0 sales in the last 90 days. We'll publish a confident 12-month outlook once 5 more sales close — at this market's typical pace, that's roughly ~2.3 years.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 80 yr, 68k mi example, ~$13.7K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 3 scored forecasts: 100% got the direction right, median value error ±94%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. 30-Year Mortgage Rate has historically led it by about 11 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE mortgage rates rose 6%. THEREFORE, given its usual 11-month head start, we lean DOWN — about −2% (≈ −$215) over the next 11 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation -0.65, 26 months overlap).
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (moderate conviction — 48% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by 30-Year Mortgage Rate and M2 Money Supply, though Unemployment Rate points the other way.
⚠ The price trend and leading indicators disagree — momentum may be running ahead of the fundamentals.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2007
$100K invested 2007-07 → today (19.1 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $31.0K━ S&P 500 $685K━ Gold $670K━ Luxury $863K━ Housing $185K
Lost ground to inflation. The Chevrolet AK-Series Pickup (1941-1947) roughly 0.3×'d your money (a real 81% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 95% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-83%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
30-Year Mortgage Rate leads by about 11 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.65). Shown shifted forward 11 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Chevrolet AK-Series Pickup (1941-1947)┄ 30-Year Mortgage Rate, shifted +11mo
Silver leads by about 15 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.63). Shown shifted forward 15 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Chevrolet AK-Series Pickup (1941-1947)┄ Silver, shifted +15mo
US Regular Gas Price leads by about 12 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.62). Shown shifted forward 12 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Chevrolet AK-Series Pickup (1941-1947)┄ US Regular Gas Price, shifted +12mo
M2 Money Supply leads by about 4 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.57). Shown shifted forward 4 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Chevrolet AK-Series Pickup (1941-1947)┄ M2 Money Supply, shifted +4mo
Unemployment Rate leads by about 19 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.56). Shown shifted forward 19 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Chevrolet AK-Series Pickup (1941-1947)┄ Unemployment Rate, shifted +19mo
WTI Crude Oil leads by about 24 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.55). Shown shifted forward 24 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Chevrolet AK-Series Pickup (1941-1947)┄ WTI Crude Oil, shifted +24mo
Silver leads by about 15 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.54). Shown shifted forward 15 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Chevrolet AK-Series Pickup (1941-1947)┄ Silver, shifted +15mo
Advance Retail Sales leads by about 19 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.52). Shown shifted forward 19 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Chevrolet AK-Series Pickup (1941-1947)┄ Advance Retail Sales, shifted +19mo
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.