Porsche 911 Turbo S (992)
The Porsche 911 Turbo S (992) market currently shows moderate overvaluation at 58.13 and a depreciation risk of 51.23, coupled with low liquidity at 37.98. While a slight downward direction is indicated for the next 6 months with 0.53 probability, the 12 and 24-month horizons suggest a slight upward shift with 0.49 and 0.51 probabilities respectively, all within a volatile regime. The 10Y-2Y Yield Spread, correlating at 0.72 with a 7-month lead, is a strong leading indicator.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 3 yr, 4k mi example, ~$238K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 48% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 33 scored forecasts: 48% got the direction right, median value error ±10%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 152 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±8%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | 2025 · 0k mi | $178K–$399K | $270K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-31 | 2023 · 10k mi | $157K–$351K | $246K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-22 | 2022 · 4k mi | $162K–$363K | $243K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-15 | 2025 · 0k mi | $177K–$395K | $990K | ✗ |
| 2026-08-15 | 2025 · 0k mi | $177K–$395K | $990K | ✗ |
| 2026-08-15 | 2025 · 8k mi | $158K–$352K | $297K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-08 | 2022 · 13k mi | $156K–$349K | $225K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-06 | 2024 · 3k mi | $163K–$365K | $270K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2021 · 26k mi | ebay | $137K–$391K ($232K) |
| open | 2025 · 1k mi | ebay | $155K–$439K ($260K) |
| open | 2023 · 2k mi | ebay | $150K–$426K ($253K) |
| open | 2023 · 3k mi | ebay | $148K–$421K ($250K) |
| open | 2022 · 14k mi | ebay | $141K–$402K ($238K) |
| open | 2021 · 20k mi | ebay | $139K–$395K ($234K) |
| open | 2021 · 26k mi | ebay | $137K–$389K ($231K) |
| open | 2023 · 2k mi | ebay | $147K–$419K ($249K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | DOWN | 53% | Low | 51% |
| 12 mo | UP | 49% | Low | 48% |
| 24 mo | UP | 51% | Low | 43% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. M2 Money Supply has historically led it by about 24 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-10 → today (4.9 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
M2 Money Supply leads by about 24 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.68). Shown shifted forward 24 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Porsche 911 (992) Carrera | 43 | 44 | 33 |
| Porsche 911 (992) GTS | 38 | 44 | 25 |
| Porsche 911 (992) Targa | 39 | 42 | 31 |
| Porsche 911 Dakar (992) | 12 | 57 | 40 |
| Porsche 911 GT3 (992) | 47 | 45 | 38 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$116,999 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$116,999 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-153,900 vs prior
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=18.7)
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$116,999 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-163,900 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.