Flagged undervalued because sell-through 100%, and -8% vs 2-yr avg.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 4 yr, 50k mi example, ~$217K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 60 confirmed sales·5 months tracked·since 2026-02·951 active listings
Auction Scorecard live
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
Closes
Car
Source
Our predicted range
open
2023 · 26k mi
classic
$121K–$388K ($217K)
open
2022 · 5k mi
classic
$121K–$388K ($217K)
open
2023 · 14k mi
classic
$121K–$388K ($217K)
open
2021 · 22k mi
classic
$121K–$388K ($217K)
open
2024 · 2k mi
classic
$126K–$404K ($226K)
open
2025 · 2k mi
classic
$129K–$413K ($230K)
open
2024 · 5k mi
classic
$129K–$413K ($230K)
open
2024 · 5k mi
classic
$129K–$413K ($230K)
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
UP
52%
Low
—
12 mo
UP
56%
Low
—
24 mo
UP
60%
Low
—
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. US Regular Gas Price has historically led it by about 9 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE US Regular Gas Price rose 38%. THEREFORE, given its usual 9-month head start, we lean DOWN — about −5% (≈ −$10,636) over the next 9 months. Confidence: High (correlation -0.69, 31 months overlap).
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-10 → today (4.7 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $94.1K━ S&P 500 $179K━ Gold $256K━ Luxury $83.1K━ Housing $121K₿ Bitcoin $113K (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Porsche 911 Turbo S (992) roughly 0.9×'d your money (a real 22% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 48% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-22%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
US Regular Gas Price leads by about 9 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.69). Shown shifted forward 9 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Porsche 911 Turbo S (992)┄ US Regular Gas Price, shifted +9mo
PCE Price Index leads by about 23 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.68). Shown shifted forward 23 months so its turns line up with the market's.
M2 Money Supply leads by about 23 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.67). Shown shifted forward 23 months so its turns line up with the market's.
S&P 500 leads by about 16 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.67). Shown shifted forward 16 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Porsche 911 Turbo S (992)┄ S&P 500, shifted +16mo
Core CPI (ex food/energy) leads by about 18 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.66). Shown shifted forward 18 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Porsche 911 Turbo S (992)┄ Core CPI (ex food/energy), shifted +18mo
Nasdaq Composite leads by about 16 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.64). Shown shifted forward 16 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Porsche 911 Turbo S (992)┄ Nasdaq Composite, shifted +16mo
10Y-2Y Yield Spread leads by about 7 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.64). Shown shifted forward 7 months so its turns line up with the market's.
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$40,000 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-104,195 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$40,000 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-49,900 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$40,000 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.