Porsche 911 Turbo S (992)
The Porsche 911 Turbo S (992) market signals an overvaluation score of 55.89 and appreciation momentum at 49.91. A 46% probability suggests an upward direction over 6 months, then a 0.5 probability of a flat trend for the 12 and 24-month horizons, all under a volatile regime. The strongest leading indicator is US Regular Gas Price, with a -0.72 correlation over a 9-month lead.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 3 yr, 4k mi example, ~$242K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 58% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 31 scored forecasts: 58% got the direction right, median value error ±10%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 141 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±8%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | 2022 · 6k mi | $164K–$363K | $232K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-02 | 2021 · 45k mi | $148K–$327K | $202K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-25 | 2024 · 2k mi | $172K–$381K | $296K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-18 | 2022 · 2k mi | $170K–$375K | $284K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-12 | 2024 · 20k mi | $162K–$357K | $223K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-12 | 2021 · 10k mi | $162K–$359K | $216K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-05 | 2023 · 5k mi | $166K–$366K | $282K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-04 | 2023 · 2k mi | $172K–$381K | $257K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2022 · 6k mi | ebay | $147K–$416K ($248K) |
| open | 2021 · 26k mi | ebay | $142K–$400K ($238K) |
| open | 2025 · 2k mi | classic | $154K–$433K ($258K) |
| open | 2023 · 2k mi | ebay | $152K–$430K ($256K) |
| open | 2021 · 4k mi | classic | $150K–$423K ($252K) |
| open | 2025 · 5k mi | classic | $148K–$418K ($249K) |
| open | 2021 · 8k mi | classic | $147K–$414K ($246K) |
| open | 2021 · 9k mi | classic | $146K–$412K ($245K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 46% | Low | 51% |
| 12 mo | FLAT | 50% | Low | 58% |
| 24 mo | FLAT | 50% | Low | 58% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. US Regular Gas Price has historically led it by about 9 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-10 → today (4.8 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
US Regular Gas Price leads by about 9 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.72). Shown shifted forward 9 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Porsche 911 (992) Carrera | 51 | 54 | 44 |
| Porsche 911 (992) GTS | 46 | 51 | 39 |
| Porsche 911 (992) Targa | 49 | 49 | 41 |
| Porsche 911 Dakar (992) | 26 | 51 | 48 |
| Porsche 911 GT3 (992) | 49 | 47 | 43 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$40,000 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$40,000 vs prior
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=5.1)
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$40,000 vs prior
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-65.9)
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$40,000 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.