Porsche 911 GT3 (992)
The Porsche 911 GT3 (992) market exhibits an upward outlook with a 0.72 probability over 24 months, though the regime is anticipated to be volatile, supported by a confidence score of 0.935. Appreciation momentum registers at 54.0, with an overvaluation score of 55.23 and liquidity at 37.71. The strongest leading indicator is Case-Shiller National Home Price, showing a 0.92 correlation with a 22-month lead.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 3 yr, 2k mi example, ~$266K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 79% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 33 scored forecasts: 79% got the direction right, median value error ±9%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 359 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±14%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly low on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | 2025 · 0k mi | $197K–$440K | $486K | ✗ |
| 2026-09-26 | 2025 · 4k mi | $178K–$397K | $502K | ✗ |
| 2026-09-25 | 2024 · 5k mi | $174K–$389K | $272K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-24 | 2024 · 13k mi | $166K–$371K | $431K | ✗ |
| 2026-09-12 | 2025 · 4k mi | $176K–$394K | $495K | ✗ |
| 2026-09-08 | 2022 · 2k mi | $184K–$412K | $255K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-31 | 2025 · 2k mi | $181K–$403K | $480K | ✗ |
| 2026-08-19 | 2023 · 5k mi | $172K–$385K | $259K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 5 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2022 · 7k mi | BaT | $142K–$407K ($240K) |
| open | 2022 · 2k mi | ebay | $160K–$460K ($272K) |
| open | 2026 · 1k mi | ebay | $163K–$467K ($276K) |
| open | 2024 · 5k mi | BaT | $148K–$426K ($251K) |
| open | 2022 · 5k mi | BaT | $148K–$426K ($251K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 59% | Low | 56% |
| 12 mo | UP | 65% | Low | 79% |
| 24 mo | UP | 72% | Low | 90% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (low conviction — 27% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by US Metro Mean Temperature and Gold (futures), though High-Yield Bond Spread points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2022
$100K invested 2022-01 → today (4.8 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 22 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.92). Shown shifted forward 22 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Porsche 911 (992) Carrera | 41 | 42 | 40 |
| Porsche 911 (992) GTS | 39 | 40 | 40 |
| Porsche 911 (992) Targa | 37 | 46 | 43 |
| Porsche 911 Dakar (992) | 12 | 69 | 36 |
| Porsche 911 Turbo S (992) | 39 | 52 | 40 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- inventory spike Inventory spiked (robust z=8.8)
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- inventory spike Inventory spiked (robust z=8.8)
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- inventory spike Inventory spiked (robust z=9.9)
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.