Flagged undervalued because sell-through 100%, -24% vs 2-yr avg, and -21% vs 3-yr trend.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 4 yr, 50k mi example, ~$242K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 215 confirmed sales·5 months tracked·since 2026-02·1086 active listings
Auction Scorecard live
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
Closes
Car
Source
Our predicted range
open
2025 · 2k mi
classic
$135K–$434K ($242K)
open
2023 · 4k mi
classic
$135K–$434K ($242K)
open
2023 · 14k mi
classic
$135K–$434K ($242K)
open
2022 · 5k mi
classic
$135K–$434K ($242K)
open
2022
BaT
$135K–$434K ($242K)
open
2025 · 1k mi
classic
$165K–$528K ($295K)
open
2024 · 1k mi
classic
$165K–$528K ($295K)
open
2023 · 6k mi
classic
$165K–$528K ($295K)
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
UP
52%
Low
—
12 mo
UP
56%
Low
—
24 mo
UP
60%
Low
—
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 100% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Gold (futures) and WTI Crude Oil.
⚠ The price trend and leading indicators disagree — momentum may be running ahead of the fundamentals.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2022
$100K invested 2022-01 → today (4.4 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $118K━ S&P 500 $182K━ Gold $254K━ Luxury $79.3K━ Housing $117K₿ Bitcoin $180K (off-scale)
Roughly tracked inflation — flat in real terms. The Porsche 911 GT3 (992) roughly 1.2×'d your money (a real, inflation-adjusted 1.0× gain). It LAGGED the stock market by about 35% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It beat housing (+1%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Real Disposable Income per Capita leads by about 0 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.82). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Porsche 911 GT3 (992)┄ Real Disposable Income per Capita, shifted +0mo
2-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 20 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.81). Shown shifted forward 20 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 22 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.80). Shown shifted forward 22 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Porsche 911 GT3 (992)┄ Case-Shiller National Home Price, shifted +22mo
Nonfarm Payrolls (jobs) leads by about 4 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.78). Shown shifted forward 4 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Effective Fed Funds Rate leads by about 17 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.78). Shown shifted forward 17 months so its turns line up with the market's.
30-Year Mortgage Rate leads by about 19 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.77). Shown shifted forward 19 months so its turns line up with the market's.
10-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 20 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.77). Shown shifted forward 20 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Advance Retail Sales leads by about 24 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.76). Shown shifted forward 24 months so its turns line up with the market's.
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-120,099 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$60,995 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-151,256 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$60,995 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$117,499 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-111,804 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.