Porsche 911 Dakar (992)
The Porsche 911 Dakar (992) market currently shows 85.27 overvaluation, with forecasts indicating a downward direction with 0.39 probability over 6 months and 0.34 probability over 12 months, both within a volatile regime. Despite appreciation momentum at 63.0 and liquidity at 44.97, the 24-month forecast suggests an upward direction with a 0.74 probability; Silver serves as a strong leading indicator with a 0.85 correlation over an 8-month lead.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 1 yr, 0k mi example, ~$342K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 86% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 7 scored forecasts: 86% got the direction right, median value error ±31%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 43 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±9%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 2023 · 8k mi | $244K–$544K | $368K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-19 | 2024 · 0k mi | $206K–$460K | $400K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-01 | 2023 · 0k mi | $172K–$552K | $395K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-01 | 2023 · 0k mi | $206K–$460K | $395K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-16 | 2024 · 0k mi | $199K–$443K | $369K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-16 | 2024 · 0k mi | $175K–$561K | $369K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-29 | 2024 · 0k mi | $192K–$429K | $460K | ✗ |
| 2026-04-25 | 2023 · 0k mi | $190K–$423K | $390K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 4 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2023 · 8k mi | ebay | $227K–$648K ($383K) |
| open | 2023 · 8k mi | ebay | $217K–$616K ($365K) |
| open | 2023 · 8k mi | ebay | $216K–$615K ($364K) |
| open | 2024 · 1k mi | classic | $178K–$573K ($320K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | DOWN | 39% | Low | 77% |
| 12 mo | DOWN | 34% | Low | 86% |
| 24 mo | UP | 74% | Low | — |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
If You’d Bought in 2023
$100K invested 2023-10 → today (3.0 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Dow Jones Industrial leads by about 5 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.85). Shown shifted forward 5 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Porsche 911 (992) Carrera | 41 | 42 | 40 |
| Porsche 911 (992) GTS | 39 | 40 | 40 |
| Porsche 911 (992) Targa | 37 | 46 | 43 |
| Porsche 911 GT3 (992) | 45 | 53 | 43 |
| Porsche 911 Turbo S (992) | 39 | 52 | 40 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-7.5)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=7.6)
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-145,667 vs prior
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=7.6)
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-145,667 vs prior
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=15.2)
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.