Porsche 911 Dakar (992)
The market for the Porsche 911 Dakar (992) shows an overvaluation score of 77.91 and low undervaluation at 13.9, with liquidity at 41.54 and a speculation opportunity of 23.58. Appreciation momentum is 48.0 and depreciation risk is 48.15; the outlook indicates a "volatile" "up" direction with probabilities ranging from 0.41 to 0.45 across all forecast horizons. This read carries a confidence of 0.839, and the Nasdaq Composite is the strongest leading indicator with a 0.82 correlation over 13 months.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 1 yr, 0k mi example, ~$336K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 75% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 4 scored forecasts: 75% got the direction right, median value error ±26%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 42 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±10%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-19 | 2024 · 0k mi | $203K–$455K | $400K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-01 | 2023 · 0k mi | $172K–$552K | $395K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-01 | 2023 · 0k mi | $203K–$455K | $395K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-16 | 2024 · 0k mi | $196K–$439K | $369K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-16 | 2024 · 0k mi | $175K–$561K | $369K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-29 | 2024 · 0k mi | $190K–$425K | $460K | ✗ |
| 2026-04-25 | 2023 · 0k mi | $186K–$416K | $390K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-10 | 2024 · 2k mi | $185K–$593K | $405K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 6 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2023 · 8k mi | ebay | $226K–$641K ($380K) |
| open | 2023 · 8k mi | ebay | $217K–$616K ($365K) |
| open | 2023 · 8k mi | ebay | $217K–$616K ($365K) |
| open | 2023 · 8k mi | ebay | $216K–$615K ($364K) |
| open | 2024 · 3k mi | classic | $230K–$646K ($385K) |
| open | 2024 · 1k mi | classic | $178K–$573K ($320K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 41% | Moderate | 70% |
| 12 mo | UP | 43% | Moderate | 75% |
| 24 mo | UP | 45% | Moderate | — |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (low conviction — 22% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by VIX Volatility Index and Core CPI (ex food/energy), though VIX Volatility Index points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2023
$100K invested 2023-10 → today (2.9 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Dow Jones Industrial leads by about 5 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.81). Shown shifted forward 5 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Porsche 911 (992) Carrera | 43 | 44 | 33 |
| Porsche 911 (992) GTS | 38 | 44 | 25 |
| Porsche 911 (992) Targa | 39 | 42 | 31 |
| Porsche 911 GT3 (992) | 47 | 45 | 38 |
| Porsche 911 Turbo S (992) | 38 | 47 | 36 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$89,015 vs prior
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=6.0)
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$100,000 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$100,000 vs prior
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=62.0)
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$100,000 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.