Porsche 911 Dakar (992)
The Porsche 911 Dakar (992) market exhibits an overvaluation score of 70.26, with appreciation momentum at 51.09 and depreciation risk at 46.24. Forecasts signal an 'up' direction for 6, 12, and 24 months with probabilities ranging from 0.52 to 0.61, all within a volatile regime. Confidence in this market read is 0.839, and the Nasdaq Composite is the strongest leading indicator, showing a 0.82 correlation with a 13-month lead.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 1 yr, 0k mi example, ~$309K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 50% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 6 scored forecasts: 50% got the direction right, median value error ±10%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 42 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±9%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-19 | 2024 · 0k mi | $214K–$474K | $400K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-01 | 2023 · 0k mi | $214K–$474K | $395K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-01 | 2023 · 0k mi | $172K–$552K | $395K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-16 | 2024 · 0k mi | $208K–$459K | $369K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-16 | 2024 · 0k mi | $175K–$561K | $369K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-29 | 2024 · 0k mi | $206K–$454K | $460K | ✗ |
| 2026-04-25 | 2023 · 0k mi | $202K–$447K | $390K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-10 | 2024 · 2k mi | $185K–$593K | $405K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2024 · 3k mi | classic | $230K–$646K ($385K) |
| open | 2024 · 1k mi | classic | $195K–$547K ($327K) |
| open | 2023 · 1k mi | classic | $193K–$620K ($346K) |
| open | 2024 · 2k mi | classic | $183K–$589K ($329K) |
| open | 2024 · 4k mi | classic | $187K–$602K ($336K) |
| open | 2024 · 6k mi | classic | $185K–$595K ($332K) |
| open | 2023 · 10k mi | classic | $183K–$587K ($328K) |
| open | 2024 · 4k mi | classic | $188K–$602K ($336K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 52% | Low | 42% |
| 12 mo | UP | 56% | Low | 50% |
| 24 mo | UP | 61% | Low | — |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Nasdaq Composite has historically led it by about 13 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
If You’d Bought in 2023
$100K invested 2023-10 → today (2.8 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Nasdaq Composite leads by about 13 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.82). Shown shifted forward 13 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Porsche 911 (992) Carrera | 51 | 54 | 44 |
| Porsche 911 (992) GTS | 46 | 51 | 39 |
| Porsche 911 (992) Targa | 49 | 49 | 41 |
| Porsche 911 GT3 (992) | 49 | 47 | 43 |
| Porsche 911 Turbo S (992) | 44 | 50 | 50 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$171,000 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$171,000 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$171,000 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$171,000 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$171,000 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$171,000 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.