Porsche 911 (992) Carrera
The market for the Porsche 911 (992) Carrera signals overvaluation at 55.0 and lower liquidity at 42.85. A flat market is indicated with a 0.5 probability over 6 months, shifting to an upward signal with 0.45 and 0.47 probabilities over 12 and 24 months respectively, all within a volatile regime. The strongest leading indicator, with a correlation of -0.67, is the High-Yield Bond Spread, leading by 12 months.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 3 yr, 7k mi example, ~$137K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 50% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 26 scored forecasts: 50% got the direction right, median value error ±7%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 10 in 10
We replayed 259 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±10%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 10 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | 2024 · 2k mi | $101K–$224K | $163K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-14 | 2020 · 5k mi | $96.6K–$213K | $135K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-13 | 2020 · 7k mi | $93.3K–$206K | $107K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-06 | 2020 · 15k mi | $85.4K–$189K | $107K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-06 | 2021 · 32k mi | $77.9K–$172K | $97.9K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-26 | 2020 · 10k mi | $90.3K–$200K | $100K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-25 | 2024 · 3k mi | $98.4K–$217K | $133K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-23 | 2023 · 8k mi | $92.2K–$204K | $136K | ✓ |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | FLAT | 50% | High | 50% |
| 12 mo | UP | 45% | High | 50% |
| 24 mo | UP | 47% | High | 57% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Trade-Weighted Dollar Index has historically led it by about 9 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (low conviction — 26% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by 10Y-2Y Yield Spread and Trade-Weighted Dollar Index, though 10Y-2Y Yield Spread points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2022
$100K invested 2022-05 → today (4.2 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Trade-Weighted Dollar Index leads by about 9 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.63). Shown shifted forward 9 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Porsche 911 (992) GTS | 46 | 51 | 39 |
| Porsche 911 (992) Targa | 49 | 49 | 41 |
| Porsche 911 Dakar (992) | 26 | 51 | 48 |
| Porsche 911 GT3 (992) | 49 | 47 | 43 |
| Porsche 911 Turbo S (992) | 44 | 50 | 50 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$22,950 vs prior
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=7.5)
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-36,328 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$49,900 vs prior
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-14.4)
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-36,828 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.