Porsche 944/951
The Porsche 944/951 market currently exhibits a depreciation risk of 62.08 and liquidity at 39.72, with appreciation momentum recorded at 42.55. Forecasts suggest a slight potential for an "up" movement over the next 6 to 24 months, with probabilities ranging from 0.52 to 0.54, though operating within a volatile regime. LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) is a strong leading indicator for this market, showing a 0.77 correlation with an 11-month lead.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 38 yr, 64k mi example, ~$16.2K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 51% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 98 scored forecasts: 51% got the direction right, median value error ±43%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 8 in 10
We replayed 473 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±29%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 8 in 10 of the time.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | 1986 · 25k mi | $10.8K–$39.2K | $16.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-08 | 1983 · 55k mi | $9.0K–$33.0K | $13.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-02 | 1989 · 133k mi | $6.0K–$22.0K | $7.6K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-01 | 1984 · 47k mi | $9.6K–$35.0K | $20.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-28 | 1985 · 153k mi | $5.6K–$20.5K | $9.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-23 | 1987 · 38k mi | $10.3K–$37.5K | $19.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-17 | 1989 · 124k mi | $6.3K–$22.9K | $14.9K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-15 | 1985 · 23k mi | $10.8K–$39.4K | $23.4K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 1987 · 96k mi | ebay | $6.1K–$32.6K ($14.0K) |
| open | 1985 · 130k mi | ebay | $5.0K–$26.9K ($11.6K) |
| open | 1983 · 2k mi | ebay | $10.0K–$53.8K ($23.2K) |
| open | 1985 | BaT | $6.9K–$37.2K ($16.0K) |
| open | 1983 | BaT | $6.9K–$37.2K ($16.0K) |
| open | 1987 · 96k mi | ebay | $6.0K–$32.0K ($13.8K) |
| open | 1986 · 21k mi | ebay | $8.8K–$47.5K ($20.5K) |
| open | 1987 · 96k mi | ebay | $6.0K–$32.3K ($14.0K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 52% | Low | 58% |
| 12 mo | UP | 53% | Low | 51% |
| 24 mo | UP | 54% | Low | 70% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
If You’d Bought in 2008
$100K invested 2008-03 → today (18.4 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) leads by about 12 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.76). Shown shifted forward 12 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alfa Romeo 105 Sedan | 66 | 43 | 36 |
| Mercedes-Benz 190SL | 41 | 45 | 54 |
| BMW 2002 tii | 47 | 56 | 20 |
| Datsun 240Z | 50 | 48 | 28 |
| Datsun 280Z | 38 | 64 | 52 |
| Ferrari 308 | 36 | 50 | 52 |
| Ferrari 308 GT4 | 54 | 47 | 16 |
| Ferrari 328 | 55 | 40 | 53 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$13,000 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-12,500 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$14,150 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-12,500 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.