Porsche 911 Turbo (930)
The Porsche 911 Turbo (930) market currently registers a high overvaluation score of 74.54. Short-term outlooks for 6 and 12 months indicate probabilities of a down direction (0.47 and 0.45, respectively) within a volatile regime, while the 24-month outlook shows a 0.5 probability of a flat direction. The S&P 500 is the strongest leading indicator, showing a 0.76 correlation over a 5-month lead.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 39 yr, 52k mi example, ~$173K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 69% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 48 scored forecasts: 69% got the direction right, median value error ±13%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 528 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±22%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly low on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | 1979 · 75k mi | $68.7K–$253K | $125K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-18 | 1988 · 41k mi | $86.8K–$319K | $250K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-18 | 1987 · 73k mi | $69.3K–$255K | $208K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-17 | 1977 · 61k mi | $74.4K–$274K | $250K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-17 | 1977 · 61k mi | $55.1K–$296K | $250K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-16 | 1987 · 18k mi | $105K–$386K | $307K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-16 | 1988 · 78k mi | $67.7K–$249K | $146K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-15 | 1989 · 149k mi | $59.1K–$218K | $176K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 1986 · 36k mi | BaT | $82.4K–$450K ($193K) |
| open | 1979 · 15k mi | classic | $80.6K–$433K ($187K) |
| open | 1987 · 11k mi | classic | $87.5K–$470K ($203K) |
| open | 1978 · 59k mi | classic | $56.3K–$303K ($131K) |
| open | 1980 | classic | $59.0K–$317K ($137K) |
| open | 1986 · 34k mi | classic | $63.1K–$334K ($145K) |
| open | 1988 · 7k mi | classic | $107K–$567K ($246K) |
| open | 1988 · 68k mi | classic | $65.0K–$344K ($150K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | DOWN | 47% | Low | 56% |
| 12 mo | DOWN | 45% | Low | 69% |
| 24 mo | FLAT | 50% | Low | 83% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (low conviction — 1% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Nonfarm Payrolls (jobs) and 30-Year Mortgage Rate, though 30-Year Mortgage Rate points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2016
$100K invested 2016-11 → today (9.9 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
S&P 500 leads by about 5 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.76). Shown shifted forward 5 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alfa Romeo 105 Sedan | 86 | 21 | 27 |
| Mercedes-Benz 190SL | 52 | 42 | 53 |
| BMW 2002 tii | 49 | 36 | 12 |
| Datsun 240Z | 48 | 64 | 35 |
| Datsun 280Z | 61 | 28 | 51 |
| Ferrari 308 | 45 | 55 | 44 |
| Ferrari 308 GT4 | 55 | 48 | 11 |
| Ferrari 328 | 46 | 54 | 41 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$59,000 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$59,000 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$50,000 vs prior
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=6.7)
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$50,000 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$59,000 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.