Fiat 500 Jolly
Given the 'thin' data state, this is a low-confidence outlook for the Fiat 500 Jolly market. Signals indicate low appreciation momentum (39.4) and liquidity (29.45), coupled with an overvaluation score of 61.31. The market is forecast to be volatile, with a 51% probability of a down direction over 6 months, and the strongest leading indicator is the High-Yield Bond Spread with a correlation of -0.67.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 55 yr, 11k mi example, ~$27.7K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 58% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 74 scored forecasts: 58% got the direction right, median value error ±48%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 7 in 10
We replayed 57 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±37%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 7 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | 1970 · 48k mi | $14.1K–$51.6K | $17.8K | ✓ |
| 2026-03-19 | 1971 · 0k mi | $17.7K–$64.9K | $28.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-03-16 | 1976 · 11k mi | $14.8K–$54.2K | $27.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-01-28 | 1965 · 7k mi | $16.9K–$61.8K | $31.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-01-22 | 1972 · 7k mi | $16.9K–$61.8K | $47.9K | ✓ |
| 2026-01-22 | 1972 · 7k mi | $13.6K–$72.0K | $47.9K | ✓ |
| 2025-01-13 | 1959 · 6k mi | $16.2K–$59.3K | $38.5K | ✓ |
| 2024-12-16 | 1971 · 0k mi | $15.2K–$55.8K | $25.0K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 5 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 1970 · 0k mi | classic | $12.6K–$66.8K ($29.0K) |
| open | 1971 · 7k mi | classic | $13.6K–$72.0K ($31.3K) |
| open | 1967 · 0k mi | classic | $12.6K–$66.8K ($29.0K) |
| open | 1972 · 6k mi | classic | $14.0K–$73.9K ($32.1K) |
| open | 1970 | classic | $11.3K–$60.1K ($26.1K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | DOWN | 51% | Low | 64% |
| 12 mo | UP | 49% | Low | 58% |
| 24 mo | UP | 50% | Low | 56% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. 2-Year Treasury Yield has historically led it by about 23 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 100% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by 2-Year Treasury Yield and U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2006
$100K invested 2006-09 → today (19.8 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 13 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.55). Shown shifted forward 13 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alfa Romeo 105 Sedan | 93 | 93 | 17 |
| Mercedes-Benz 190SL | 38 | 43 | 39 |
| BMW 2002 tii | 46 | 74 | 20 |
| Datsun 240Z | 41 | 56 | 38 |
| Datsun 280Z | 32 | 66 | 60 |
| Ferrari 308 | 38 | 64 | 34 |
| Ferrari 308 GT4 | 51 | 54 | 26 |
| Ferrari 328 | 58 | 46 | 42 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=7.6)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-7.2)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=4.0)
- inventory spike Inventory spiked (robust z=3.4)
- inventory spike Inventory spiked (robust z=4.3)
- inventory spike Inventory spiked (robust z=5.4)
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.