Tracking 1 sale in the last 90 days. We'll publish a confident 12-month outlook once 4 more sales close — at this market's typical pace, that's roughly 9 months.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 50 yr, 36k mi example, ~$214K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 43 scored forecasts: 49% got the direction right, median value error ±56%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard live
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 1 open auction in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
Closes
Car
Source
Our predicted range
open
1974 · 67k mi
classic
$32.9K–$174K ($75.7K)
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 72% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by WTI Crude Oil and 10-Year Treasury Yield, though WTI Crude Oil points the other way.
⚠ The price trend and leading indicators disagree — momentum may be running ahead of the fundamentals.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2007
$100K invested 2007-03 → today (19.3 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $163K━ S&P 500 $749K━ Gold $616K━ Luxury $1181K━ Housing $183K
Roughly tracked inflation — flat in real terms. The Ferrari 365GT4/400/400i/412 roughly 1.6×'d your money (a real, inflation-adjusted 1.0× gain). It LAGGED the stock market by about 78% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-11%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Real Disposable Income per Capita leads by about 21 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.73). Shown shifted forward 21 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari 365GT4/400/400i/412┄ Real Disposable Income per Capita, shifted +21mo
Dow Jones Industrial leads by about 18 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.73). Shown shifted forward 18 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari 365GT4/400/400i/412┄ Dow Jones Industrial, shifted +18mo
Advance Retail Sales leads by about 10 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.72). Shown shifted forward 10 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari 365GT4/400/400i/412┄ Advance Retail Sales, shifted +10mo
PCE Price Index leads by about 0 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.72). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari 365GT4/400/400i/412┄ PCE Price Index, shifted +0mo
S&P 500 leads by about 18 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.72). Shown shifted forward 18 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari 365GT4/400/400i/412┄ S&P 500, shifted +18mo
CPI (All Urban Consumers) leads by about 24 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.72). Shown shifted forward 24 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari 365GT4/400/400i/412┄ CPI (All Urban Consumers), shifted +24mo
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 24 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.72). Shown shifted forward 24 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari 365GT4/400/400i/412┄ Case-Shiller National Home Price, shifted +24mo
Core CPI (ex food/energy) leads by about 24 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.72). Shown shifted forward 24 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari 365GT4/400/400i/412┄ Core CPI (ex food/energy), shifted +24mo
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
