BMW Z8
Flagged undervalued because sell-through 100%, -9% vs 2-yr avg, and -9% vs 3-yr trend.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 23 yr, 15k mi example, ~$186K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 44% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 39 scored forecasts: 44% got the direction right, median value error ±12%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 223 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±10%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-28 | 2003 · 7k mi | $125K–$328K | $202K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-20 | 2001 · 33k mi | $94.4K–$248K | $127K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-15 | 2001 · 19k mi | $103K–$271K | $168K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-14 | 2003 · 14k mi | $110K–$288K | $193K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-29 | 2002 · 4k mi | $134K–$352K | $370K | ✗ |
| 2026-04-17 | 2002 · 7k mi | $125K–$328K | $251K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-17 | 2002 · 7k mi | $108K–$382K | $251K | ✓ |
| 2026-03-30 | 2002 · 13k mi | $112K–$293K | $195K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2002 · 23k mi | classic | $86.5K–$307K ($163K) |
| open | 2001 · 7k mi | classic | $109K–$385K ($205K) |
| open | 2002 · 18k mi | classic | $90.2K–$320K ($170K) |
| open | 2000 · 20k mi | classic | $88.1K–$312K ($166K) |
| open | 2002 · 31k mi | classic | $82.8K–$294K ($156K) |
| open | 2001 · 7k mi | classic | $109K–$385K ($205K) |
| open | 2001 · 8k mi | classic | $106K–$375K ($199K) |
| open | 2001 · 25k mi | classic | $85.2K–$302K ($160K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 45% | Low | 53% |
| 12 mo | UP | 45% | Low | 44% |
| 24 mo | UP | 45% | Low | 33% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Trade-Weighted Dollar Index has historically led it by about 3 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (moderate conviction — 55% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by 10Y-2Y Yield Spread and Trade-Weighted Dollar Index, though Housing Starts points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2013
$100K invested 2013-01 → today (13.4 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Trade-Weighted Dollar Index leads by about 3 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.58). Shown shifted forward 3 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Martin DB4 | 57 | 56 | 8 |
| Bentley Continental (S1, S2, S3) | 69 | 47 | 67 |
| Buick Riviera | 38 | 38 | 22 |
| Bentley Continental GT (2004-2011) | 37 | 42 | 31 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$24,000 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$24,000 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$24,000 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$24,000 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$24,000 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.