Tracking 45 sales in the last 90 days — the modeled signal will appear here on the next nightly rebuild.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 22 yr, 17k mi example, ~$39.7K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Building historyNot enough data to chart yet — check back as sales accrue.
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 49 scored forecasts: 61% got the direction right, median value error ±246%.
Track record buildingNot enough graded forecasts yet to show accuracy.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 131 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±14%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time.
Sold
Car
Our range
Hammer
2026-09-12
2003 · 60k mi
$17.0K–$53.5K
$28.8K
✓
2026-09-08
2004 · 1k mi
$36.1K–$113K
$62.6K
✓
2026-08-30
2003 · 18k mi
$20.5K–$64.7K
$35.0K
✓
2026-08-23
2003 · 30k mi
$18.6K–$58.7K
$31.0K
✓
2026-08-15
2003 · 27k mi
$19.0K–$59.9K
$32.0K
✓
2026-08-06
2003
$17.3K–$79.5K
$56.2K
✓
2026-08-06
2003 · 6k mi
$27.4K–$86.1K
$52.5K
✓
2026-07-30
2003 · 8k mi
$24.8K–$78.1K
$48.5K
✓
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
Closes
Car
Source
Our predicted range
open
2003 · 48k mi
classic
$15.2K–$70.2K ($32.7K)
open
2003 · 79k mi
classic
$12.0K–$55.2K ($25.7K)
open
2004 · 60k mi
classic
$13.5K–$62.8K ($29.2K)
open
2003 · 14k mi
classic
$17.7K–$81.9K ($38.0K)
open
2003 · 18k mi
classic
$16.9K–$78.3K ($36.4K)
open
2003 · 38k mi
classic
$14.8K–$68.3K ($31.8K)
open
2003 · 78k mi
classic
$11.9K–$48.4K ($24.0K)
open
2003 · 2k mi
classic
$16.9K–$71.8K ($34.9K)
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Ethereum (USD) has historically led it by about 4 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE Ethereum (USD) rose 33%. THEREFORE, given its usual 4-month head start, we expect little change — about −0% (≈ −$151) over the next 4 months. Confidence: High (correlation +0.64, 61 months overlap).
If You’d Bought in 2012
$100K invested 2012-05 → today (14.3 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $137K━ S&P 500 $755K━ Gold $280K━ Luxury $626K━ Housing $239K
Lost ground to inflation. The Ford Mustang SN95/New Edge SVT Cobra Terminator roughly 1.4×'d your money (a real 6% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 82% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-43%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) leads by about 12 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.78). Shown shifted forward 12 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 3 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.71). Shown shifted forward 3 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang SN95/New Edge SVT Cobra Terminator┄ Case-Shiller National Home Price, shifted +3mo
Trade-Weighted Dollar Index leads by about 2 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.71). Shown shifted forward 2 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang SN95/New Edge SVT Cobra Terminator┄ Trade-Weighted Dollar Index, shifted +2mo
10Y-2Y Yield Spread leads by about 14 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.69). Shown shifted forward 14 months so its turns line up with the market's.
M2 Money Supply leads by about 24 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.66). Shown shifted forward 24 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Advance Retail Sales leads by about 10 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.64). Shown shifted forward 10 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Ethereum (USD) leads by about 4 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.64). Shown shifted forward 4 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Housing Starts leads by about 24 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.63). Shown shifted forward 24 months so its turns line up with the market's.
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$10,000 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-6,029 vs prior
price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=4260.7)
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-6,029 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$10,000 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
