Flagged undervalued because -17% vs 2-yr avg, and -18% vs 3-yr trend.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 26 yr, 23k mi example, ~$18.5K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 858 confirmed sales·174 months tracked·since 2012-01·152 active listings
Did our model work? 56% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 39 scored forecasts: 56% got the direction right, median value error ±11%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
UP
48%
Low
60%
12 mo
UP
49%
Low
56%
24 mo
UP
50%
Low
52%
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. High-Yield Bond Spread has historically led it by about 5 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE credit spreads fell 5%. THEREFORE, given its usual 5-month head start, we lean UP — about +2% (≈ +$298) over the next 5 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation -0.71, 20 months overlap).
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 75% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Housing Starts and Nonfarm Payrolls (jobs), though US Metro Mean Temperature points the other way.
⚠ The price trend and leading indicators disagree — momentum may be running ahead of the fundamentals.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2012
$100K invested 2012-01 → today (14.4 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $143K━ S&P 500 $743K━ Gold $261K━ Luxury $670K━ Housing $246K
Roughly tracked inflation — flat in real terms. The Ford Mustang SN95/New Edge Cobra roughly 1.4×'d your money (a real 2% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 81% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-42%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 5 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.71). Shown shifted forward 5 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang SN95/New Edge Cobra┄ High-Yield Bond Spread, shifted +5mo
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 17 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.55). Shown shifted forward 17 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang SN95/New Edge Cobra┄ High-Yield Bond Spread, shifted +17mo
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 17 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.53). Shown shifted forward 17 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang SN95/New Edge Cobra┄ High-Yield Bond Spread, shifted +17mo
Personal Savings Rate leads by about 0 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.47). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang SN95/New Edge Cobra┄ Personal Savings Rate, shifted +0mo
10Y-2Y Yield Spread leads by about 14 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.45). Shown shifted forward 14 months so its turns line up with the market's.
U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment leads by about 17 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.44). Shown shifted forward 17 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang SN95/New Edge Cobra┄ U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment, shifted +17mo
VIX Volatility Index leads by about 4 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.44). Shown shifted forward 4 months so its turns line up with the market's.
10-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 12 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.43). Shown shifted forward 12 months so its turns line up with the market's.
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$4,000 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.