Showing appreciation momentum: +56% vs 12-mo avg, and sale prices +2.0%/mo.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 21 yr, 28k mi example, ~$19.7K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 133 confirmed sales·169 months tracked·since 2012-06·70 active listings
Did our model work? 63% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 19 scored forecasts: 63% got the direction right, median value error ±40%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
DOWN
56%
Low
56%
12 mo
DOWN
58%
Low
63%
24 mo
DOWN
61%
Low
43%
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Russell 2000 (small cap) has historically led it by about 24 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE Russell 2000 (small cap) rose 43%. THEREFORE, given its usual 24-month head start, we lean UP — about +2% (≈ +$339) over the next 24 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation +0.73, 22 months overlap).
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 100% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Silver and US Metro Mean Temperature.
⚠ The price trend and leading indicators disagree — momentum may be running ahead of the fundamentals.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2012
$100K invested 2012-06 → today (14.0 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $99.6K━ S&P 500 $711K━ Gold $283K━ Luxury $700K━ Housing $230K
Lost ground to inflation. The Ford Mustang SN95/New Edge Mach 1 roughly 1.0×'d your money (a real 31% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 86% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-57%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Russell 2000 (small cap) leads by about 24 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.73). Shown shifted forward 24 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang SN95/New Edge Mach 1┄ Russell 2000 (small cap), shifted +24mo
Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) leads by about 3 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.70). Shown shifted forward 3 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Gold (futures) leads by about 18 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.69). Shown shifted forward 18 months so its turns line up with the market's.
LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) leads by about 13 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.69). Shown shifted forward 13 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 1 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.68). Shown shifted forward 1 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang SN95/New Edge Mach 1┄ Case-Shiller National Home Price, shifted +1mo
Silver leads by about 8 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.67). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang SN95/New Edge Mach 1┄ Silver, shifted +8mo
U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment leads by about 23 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.67). Shown shifted forward 23 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang SN95/New Edge Mach 1┄ U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment, shifted +23mo
Gold (futures) leads by about 12 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.66). Shown shifted forward 12 months so its turns line up with the market's.
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$4,000 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.