Showing appreciation momentum: sale prices +4.1%/mo, and +38% vs 12-mo avg.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 21 yr, 26k mi example, ~$21.5K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 136 confirmed auction sales·171 months tracked·since 2012-06·139 active listings
Did our model work? 67% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 48 scored forecasts: 67% got the direction right, median value error ±30%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
DOWN
53%
Low
57%
12 mo
DOWN
54%
Low
67%
24 mo
DOWN
55%
Low
72%
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. High-Yield Bond Spread has historically led it by about 6 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE credit spreads fell 13%. THEREFORE, given its usual 6-month head start, we lean DOWN — about −2% (≈ −$341) over the next 6 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation +0.74, 19 months overlap).
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 77% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Silver and Trade-Weighted Dollar Index, though Ethereum (USD) points the other way.
⚠ The price trend and leading indicators disagree — momentum may be running ahead of the fundamentals.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2012
$100K invested 2012-06 → today (14.2 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $98.8K━ S&P 500 $732K━ Gold $279K━ Luxury $682K━ Housing $234K
Lost ground to inflation. The Ford Mustang SN95/New Edge Mach 1 roughly 1.0×'d your money (a real 32% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 87% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-58%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 18 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.74). Shown shifted forward 18 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang SN95/New Edge Mach 1┄ High-Yield Bond Spread, shifted +18mo
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 6 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.74). Shown shifted forward 6 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang SN95/New Edge Mach 1┄ High-Yield Bond Spread, shifted +6mo
Unemployment Rate leads by about 7 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.55). Shown shifted forward 7 months so its turns line up with the market's.
10Y-2Y Yield Spread leads by about 3 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.54). Shown shifted forward 3 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Silver leads by about 8 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.54). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang SN95/New Edge Mach 1┄ Silver, shifted +8mo
Dow Jones Industrial leads by about 24 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.51). Shown shifted forward 24 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang SN95/New Edge Mach 1┄ Dow Jones Industrial, shifted +24mo
Gold (futures) leads by about 18 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.50). Shown shifted forward 18 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Trade-Weighted Dollar Index leads by about 2 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.50). Shown shifted forward 2 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang SN95/New Edge Mach 1┄ Trade-Weighted Dollar Index, shifted +2mo
Why We Think This
Appreciation Momentum
62
Undervaluation
23
Liquidity
44
Speculation Opportunity
42
Depreciation Risk
45
Overvaluation
78
+104% vs 3-yr trendpct vs trailing 36mo
asking +61% vs historic soldasking vs historic spread
+87% vs 2-yr avgpct vs trailing 24mo
sale prices +4.1%/momedian sale trend slope
+38% vs 12-mo avgpct vs trailing 12mo
asking trend -0.1%/momedian asking trend slope
sell-through 72%sell through rate
new-listing velocity 7% of activenew listing velocity
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-2,972 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$3,100 vs prior
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.