Flagged undervalued because asking +7% vs historic sold.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 7 yr, 4k mi example, ~$74.9K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 734 confirmed auction sales·68 months tracked·since 2021-03·613 active listings
Did our model work? 67% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 45 scored forecasts: 67% got the direction right, median value error ±15%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
DOWN
44%
Low
53%
12 mo
FLAT
50%
Low
67%
24 mo
UP
68%
Low
85%
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 100% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Gold (futures) and 2-Year Treasury Yield.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-03 → today (5.6 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $137K━ S&P 500 $215K━ Gold $239K━ Luxury $79.3K━ Housing $138K₿ Bitcoin $139K (off-scale)
Roughly tracked inflation — flat in real terms. The Ford Mustang (S550) Shelby GT500/GT350 roughly 1.4×'d your money (a real, inflation-adjusted 1.1× gain). It LAGGED the stock market by about 36% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-1%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 9 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.88). Shown shifted forward 9 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang (S550) Shelby GT500/GT350┄ Case-Shiller National Home Price, shifted +9mo
Advance Retail Sales leads by about 10 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.87). Shown shifted forward 10 months so its turns line up with the market's.
PCE Price Index leads by about 11 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.86). Shown shifted forward 11 months so its turns line up with the market's.
CPI (All Urban Consumers) leads by about 8 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.86). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Core CPI (ex food/energy) leads by about 0 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.86). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang (S550) Shelby GT500/GT350┄ Core CPI (ex food/energy), shifted +0mo
Gold (futures) leads by about 0 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.85). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang (S550) Shelby GT500/GT350┄ Gold (futures), shifted +0mo
Nonfarm Payrolls (jobs) leads by about 8 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.85). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
inventory spike Inventory spiked (robust z=14.9)
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$3,081 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-5,395 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.