Flagged undervalued because sell-through 99%, -27% vs 2-yr avg, and -25% vs 3-yr trend.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 6 yr, 4k mi example, ~$75.1K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 711 confirmed auction sales·65 months tracked·since 2021-03·268 active listings
Did our model work? 52% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 42 scored forecasts: 52% got the direction right, median value error ±18%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
UP
53%
Low
48%
12 mo
UP
56%
Low
52%
24 mo
UP
60%
Low
60%
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment has historically led it by about 12 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE consumer sentiment fell 14%. THEREFORE, given its usual 12-month head start, we lean UP — about +3% (≈ +$1,960) over the next 12 months. Confidence: High (correlation +0.60, 42 months overlap).
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-03 → today (5.3 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $137K━ S&P 500 $209K━ Gold $238K━ Luxury $101K━ Housing $136K₿ Bitcoin $110K (off-scale)
Roughly tracked inflation — flat in real terms. The Ford Mustang (S550) Shelby GT500/GT350 roughly 1.4×'d your money (a real, inflation-adjusted 1.1× gain). It LAGGED the stock market by about 35% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (+0%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Trade-Weighted Dollar Index leads by about 3 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.66). Shown shifted forward 3 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang (S550) Shelby GT500/GT350┄ Trade-Weighted Dollar Index, shifted +3mo
LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) leads by about 12 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.66). Shown shifted forward 12 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 8 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.64). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang (S550) Shelby GT500/GT350┄ Case-Shiller National Home Price, shifted +8mo
U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment leads by about 24 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.62). Shown shifted forward 24 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang (S550) Shelby GT500/GT350┄ U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment, shifted +24mo
30-Year Mortgage Rate leads by about 3 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.61). Shown shifted forward 3 months so its turns line up with the market's.
2-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 11 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.60). Shown shifted forward 11 months so its turns line up with the market's.
U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment leads by about 12 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.60). Shown shifted forward 12 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang (S550) Shelby GT500/GT350┄ U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment, shifted +12mo
Nasdaq Composite leads by about 12 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.58). Shown shifted forward 12 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang (S550) Shelby GT500/GT350┄ Nasdaq Composite, shifted +12mo
Why We Think This
Appreciation Momentum
49
Undervaluation
46
Liquidity
58
Speculation Opportunity
46
Depreciation Risk
47
Overvaluation
53
asking +40% vs historic soldasking vs historic spread
sell-through 99%sell through rate
-27% vs 2-yr avgpct vs trailing 24mo
sale prices -0.8%/momedian sale trend slope
-23% vs 12-mo avgpct vs trailing 12mo
new-listing velocity 10% of activenew listing velocity
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$5,988 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-3,485 vs prior
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.