Flagged undervalued because -29% vs 2-yr avg, and -29% vs 3-yr trend.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 6 yr, 4k mi example, ~$73.3K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 711 confirmed auction sales·67 months tracked·since 2021-03·520 active listings
Did our model work? 50% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 44 scored forecasts: 50% got the direction right, median value error ±18%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
UP
52%
Low
48%
12 mo
UP
55%
Low
50%
24 mo
UP
58%
Low
56%
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. High-Yield Bond Spread has historically led it by about 11 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE credit spreads fell 10%. THEREFORE, given its usual 11-month head start, we lean UP — about +1% (≈ +$617) over the next 11 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation -0.69, 18 months overlap).
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (low conviction — 26% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Nasdaq Composite, though Nasdaq Composite points the other way.
⚠ The price trend and leading indicators disagree — momentum may be running ahead of the fundamentals.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-03 → today (5.5 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $137K━ S&P 500 $213K━ Gold $258K━ Luxury $96.0K━ Housing $138K₿ Bitcoin $132K (off-scale)
Roughly tracked inflation — flat in real terms. The Ford Mustang (S550) Shelby GT500/GT350 roughly 1.4×'d your money (a real, inflation-adjusted 1.1× gain). It LAGGED the stock market by about 36% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-1%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 11 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.69). Shown shifted forward 11 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang (S550) Shelby GT500/GT350┄ High-Yield Bond Spread, shifted +11mo
LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) leads by about 12 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.66). Shown shifted forward 12 months so its turns line up with the market's.
U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment leads by about 12 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.64). Shown shifted forward 12 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang (S550) Shelby GT500/GT350┄ U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment, shifted +12mo
Trade-Weighted Dollar Index leads by about 3 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.64). Shown shifted forward 3 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang (S550) Shelby GT500/GT350┄ Trade-Weighted Dollar Index, shifted +3mo
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 23 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.59). Shown shifted forward 23 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang (S550) Shelby GT500/GT350┄ High-Yield Bond Spread, shifted +23mo
30-Year Mortgage Rate leads by about 3 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.56). Shown shifted forward 3 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Nasdaq Composite leads by about 12 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.56). Shown shifted forward 12 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang (S550) Shelby GT500/GT350┄ Nasdaq Composite, shifted +12mo
Dow Jones Industrial leads by about 24 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.55). Shown shifted forward 24 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang (S550) Shelby GT500/GT350┄ Dow Jones Industrial, shifted +24mo
Why We Think This
Appreciation Momentum
40
Undervaluation
46
Liquidity
50
Speculation Opportunity
42
Depreciation Risk
52
Overvaluation
49
asking +26% vs historic soldasking vs historic spread
sell-through 61%sell through rate
-29% vs 2-yr avgpct vs trailing 24mo
sale prices -1.5%/momedian sale trend slope
-22% vs 12-mo avgpct vs trailing 12mo
4% of listings cutting priceprice drop frequency
new-listing velocity 8% of activenew listing velocity
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$4,255 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-6,296 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.