Flagged undervalued because asking -13% vs historic sold, and inventory -0%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 3 yr, 4k mi example, ~$48.5K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 45 confirmed auction sales·62 months tracked·since 2021-09·454 active listings
Did our model work? 11% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 9 scored forecasts: 11% got the direction right, median value error ±41%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
FLAT
50%
Low
40%
12 mo
UP
51%
Low
11%
24 mo
UP
53%
Low
—
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. 2-Year Treasury Yield has historically led it by about 21 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE 2-Year Treasury Yield rose 13%. THEREFORE, given its usual 21-month head start, we expect little change — about −0% (≈ −$90) over the next 21 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation -0.89, 20 months overlap).
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-09 → today (5.1 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $64.7K━ S&P 500 $196K━ Gold $234K━ Luxury $72.9K━ Housing $124K₿ Bitcoin $186K (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Ford Mustang (S550) Mach 1 roughly 0.6×'d your money (a real 47% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 67% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-48%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
2-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 21 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.89). Shown shifted forward 21 months so its turns line up with the market's.
M2 Money Supply leads by about 10 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.87). Shown shifted forward 10 months so its turns line up with the market's.
PCE Price Index leads by about 22 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.87). Shown shifted forward 22 months so its turns line up with the market's.
30-Year Mortgage Rate leads by about 21 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.86). Shown shifted forward 21 months so its turns line up with the market's.
10-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 20 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.85). Shown shifted forward 20 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Effective Fed Funds Rate leads by about 15 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.85). Shown shifted forward 15 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Nonfarm Payrolls (jobs) leads by about 24 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.85). Shown shifted forward 24 months so its turns line up with the market's.
CPI (All Urban Consumers) leads by about 23 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.85). Shown shifted forward 23 months so its turns line up with the market's.
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-5,395 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$3,081 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.