Flagged undervalued because sell-through 99%, -31% vs 2-yr avg, and -29% vs 3-yr trend.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 7 yr, 5k mi example, ~$68.1K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 564 confirmed auction sales·65 months tracked·since 2021-03·1 active listings
Did our model work? 68% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 41 scored forecasts: 68% got the direction right, median value error ±12%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
UP
53%
Low
57%
12 mo
UP
56%
Low
68%
24 mo
UP
60%
Low
79%
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 100% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) and Ethereum (USD).
⚠ The price trend and leading indicators disagree — momentum may be running ahead of the fundamentals.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-03 → today (5.3 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $124K━ S&P 500 $209K━ Gold $238K━ Luxury $101K━ Housing $136K₿ Bitcoin $110K (off-scale)
Roughly tracked inflation — flat in real terms. The Ford Mustang (S550) GT350 roughly 1.2×'d your money (a real 1% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 40% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-9%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 9 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.81). Shown shifted forward 9 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang (S550) GT350┄ Case-Shiller National Home Price, shifted +9mo
PCE Price Index leads by about 11 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.72). Shown shifted forward 11 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang (S550) GT350┄ PCE Price Index, shifted +11mo
Nonfarm Payrolls (jobs) leads by about 6 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.69). Shown shifted forward 6 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang (S550) GT350┄ Nonfarm Payrolls (jobs), shifted +6mo
Advance Retail Sales leads by about 10 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.67). Shown shifted forward 10 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang (S550) GT350┄ Advance Retail Sales, shifted +10mo
30-Year Mortgage Rate leads by about 9 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.65). Shown shifted forward 9 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang (S550) GT350┄ 30-Year Mortgage Rate, shifted +9mo
10-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 8 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.65). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang (S550) GT350┄ 10-Year Treasury Yield, shifted +8mo
CPI (All Urban Consumers) leads by about 3 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.65). Shown shifted forward 3 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Core CPI (ex food/energy) leads by about 0 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.65). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang (S550) GT350┄ Core CPI (ex food/energy), shifted +0mo
Why We Think This
Appreciation Momentum
46
Undervaluation
42
Liquidity
56
Speculation Opportunity
41
Depreciation Risk
58
Overvaluation
56
asking +45% vs historic soldasking vs historic spread
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$5,988 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-3,485 vs prior
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.