Flagged undervalued because asking -13% vs historic sold.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 7 yr, 5k mi example, ~$71.5K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 584 confirmed auction sales·68 months tracked·since 2021-03·18 active listings
Did our model work? 70% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 43 scored forecasts: 70% got the direction right, median value error ±10%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
UP
54%
Low
51%
12 mo
UP
58%
Low
70%
24 mo
UP
62%
Low
84%
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (moderate conviction — 52% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Gold (futures) and 2-Year Treasury Yield, though Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) points the other way.
Trend and leading indicators agree — both point up. Higher-conviction read.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-03 → today (5.6 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $131K━ S&P 500 $215K━ Gold $239K━ Luxury $79.3K━ Housing $138K₿ Bitcoin $139K (off-scale)
Roughly tracked inflation — flat in real terms. The Ford Mustang (S550) GT350 roughly 1.3×'d your money (a real, inflation-adjusted 1.0× gain). It LAGGED the stock market by about 39% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-5%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Gold (futures) leads by about 1 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.86). Shown shifted forward 1 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang (S550) GT350┄ Gold (futures), shifted +1mo
Advance Retail Sales leads by about 10 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.85). Shown shifted forward 10 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang (S550) GT350┄ Advance Retail Sales, shifted +10mo
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 9 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.85). Shown shifted forward 9 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang (S550) GT350┄ Case-Shiller National Home Price, shifted +9mo
PCE Price Index leads by about 11 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.84). Shown shifted forward 11 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang (S550) GT350┄ PCE Price Index, shifted +11mo
Nonfarm Payrolls (jobs) leads by about 8 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.84). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang (S550) GT350┄ Nonfarm Payrolls (jobs), shifted +8mo
Dow Jones Industrial leads by about 6 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.84). Shown shifted forward 6 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang (S550) GT350┄ Dow Jones Industrial, shifted +6mo
CPI (All Urban Consumers) leads by about 0 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.84). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-5,395 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$3,081 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.