Ferrari Roma
Flagged undervalued because inventory -1%, +4% vs 2-yr avg, and +7% vs 3-yr trend.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 2 yr, 2k mi example, ~$202K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 27% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 15 scored forecasts: 27% got the direction right, median value error ±19%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 69 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±10%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | 2024 · 1k mi | $140K–$373K | $244K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-07 | 2024 · 1k mi | $141K–$375K | $243K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-11 | 2024 · 4k mi | $136K–$362K | $207K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-08 | 2023 · 4k mi | $139K–$370K | $220K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-01 | 2023 · 3k mi | $141K–$376K | $213K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-24 | 2024 · 0k mi | $149K–$396K | $219K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-15 | 2024 | $106K–$386K | $14.4K | ✗ |
| 2026-05-01 | 2024 · 4k mi | $136K–$363K | $225K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2025 · 1k mi | ebay | $119K–$435K ($228K) |
| open | 2024 · 5k mi | BaT | $114K–$415K ($217K) |
| open | 2025 · 1k mi | ebay | $118K–$430K ($225K) |
| open | 2025 · 1k mi | ebay | $119K–$433K ($227K) |
| open | 2025 · 1k mi | ebay | $117K–$424K ($223K) |
| open | 2021 · 15k mi | ebay | $110K–$397K ($209K) |
| open | 2022 · 7k mi | ebay | $105K–$382K ($201K) |
| open | 2025 · 1k mi | ebay | $119K–$433K ($227K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | FLAT | 50% | Low | 57% |
| 12 mo | UP | 53% | Low | 27% |
| 24 mo | UP | 56% | Low | 0% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Core CPI (ex food/energy) has historically led it by about 6 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (moderate conviction — 49% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Core CPI (ex food/energy) and Russell 2000 (small cap), though Russell 2000 (small cap) points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2022
$100K invested 2022-11 → today (3.9 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Core CPI (ex food/energy) leads by about 6 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.74). Shown shifted forward 6 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Martin DB4 | 60 | 43 | 63 |
| Aston Martin DB5 | 33 | 43 | — |
| Bentley Continental (S1, S2, S3) | 34 | 76 | 58 |
| Buick Riviera | 57 | 50 | 46 |
| Mercedes-Benz CL-Class | 49 | 49 | 37 |
| Mercedes-Benz CLK-Class | 55 | 40 | 46 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$49,010 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-169,989 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$49,010 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-169,989 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-169,989 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$59,303 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.