Ferrari GTC4Lusso
Flagged undervalued because inventory -1%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 7 yr, 19k mi example, ~$191K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 73% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 11 scored forecasts: 73% got the direction right, median value error ±8%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 33 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±15%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly low on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | 2018 · 5k mi | $177K–$471K | $501K | ✗ |
| 2026-07-22 | 2018 · 29k mi | $106K–$283K | $205K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-29 | 2017 · 16k mi | $116K–$308K | $180K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-23 | 2017 · 20k mi | $112K–$297K | $193K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-21 | 2018 · 22k mi | $110K–$292K | $205K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-26 | 2018 · 8k mi | $129K–$343K | $148K | ✓ |
| 2026-03-30 | 2020 · 40k mi | $99.4K–$264K | $184K | ✓ |
| 2026-03-16 | 2017 · 27k mi | $106K–$282K | $170K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 6 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2018 · 3k mi | ebay | $160K–$584K ($306K) |
| open | 2018 · 3k mi | ebay | $162K–$592K ($310K) |
| open | 2018 · 25k mi | classic | $94.8K–$336K ($179K) |
| open | 2018 · 13k mi | classic | $102K–$362K ($192K) |
| open | 2019 · 13k mi | classic | $102K–$362K ($192K) |
| open | 2018 · 18k mi | classic | $98.8K–$350K ($186K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | DOWN | 43% | Low | 59% |
| 12 mo | DOWN | 38% | Low | 73% |
| 24 mo | DOWN | 32% | Low | — |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-10 → today (5.0 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 12 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.80). Shown shifted forward 12 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Martin DB4 | 60 | 43 | 63 |
| Aston Martin DB5 | 33 | 43 | — |
| Bentley Continental (S1, S2, S3) | 34 | 76 | 58 |
| Buick Riviera | 57 | 50 | 46 |
| Mercedes-Benz CL-Class | 49 | 49 | 37 |
| Mercedes-Benz CLK-Class | 55 | 40 | 46 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$25,392 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$25,392 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$25,392 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$41,994 vs prior
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=4.8)
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$41,994 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.