Ferrari GTC4Lusso
Flagged undervalued because inventory -0%, sell-through 100%, and -28% vs 2-yr avg.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 7 yr, 16k mi example, ~$185K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 0% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 8 scored forecasts: 0% got the direction right, median value error ±100%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 31 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±14%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-29 | 2017 · 16k mi | $113K–$306K | $180K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-23 | 2017 · 20k mi | $109K–$294K | $193K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-21 | 2018 · 22k mi | $107K–$291K | $205K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-26 | 2018 · 8k mi | $122K–$331K | $148K | ✓ |
| 2026-03-30 | 2020 · 40k mi | $100K–$271K | $184K | ✓ |
| 2026-03-16 | 2017 · 27k mi | $105K–$283K | $170K | ✓ |
| 2026-03-06 | 2020 · 8k mi | $124K–$334K | $291K | ✓ |
| 2026-02-23 | 2020 · 16k mi | $113K–$307K | $297K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2017 · 23k mi | classic | $97.3K–$352K ($185K) |
| open | 2018 · 29k mi | BaT | $94.8K–$342K ($180K) |
| open | 2019 · 10k mi | classic | $106K–$382K ($201K) |
| open | 2018 · 29k mi | classic | $97.4K–$350K ($185K) |
| open | 2017 · 22k mi | classic | $98.1K–$352K ($186K) |
| open | 2017 · 34k mi | classic | $93.5K–$336K ($177K) |
| open | 2017 · 40k mi | classic | $92.0K–$330K ($174K) |
| open | 2018 · 12k mi | classic | $108K–$370K ($200K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 49% | Low | 43% |
| 12 mo | UP | 52% | Low | 0% |
| 24 mo | UP | 54% | Low | — |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Silver has historically led it by about 3 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-10 → today (4.8 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Silver leads by about 3 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.87). Shown shifted forward 3 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Martin DB4 | 75 | 55 | 61 |
| Bentley Continental (S1, S2, S3) | 64 | 75 | 52 |
| Buick Riviera | 40 | 45 | 20 |
| Mercedes-Benz CL-Class | 54 | 72 | 36 |
| Mercedes-Benz CLK-Class | 45 | 24 | 42 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=4.1)
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$40,000 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-43,000 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$40,000 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-43,000 vs prior
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-9.5)
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.