Ferrari GTC4Lusso
Flagged undervalued because -30% vs 2-yr avg, and sell-through 100%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 7 yr, 16k mi example, ~$178K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 0% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 3 scored forecasts: 0% got the direction right, median value error ±68%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard live
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2018 · 11k mi | classic | $104K–$369K ($196K) |
| open | 2018 · 25k mi | classic | $94.8K–$336K ($179K) |
| open | 2018 · 11k mi | classic | $104K–$370K ($197K) |
| open | 2017 · 11k mi | classic | $104K–$369K ($196K) |
| open | 2018 · 25k mi | classic | $94.9K–$336K ($179K) |
| open | 2018 · 26k mi | classic | $94.3K–$335K ($178K) |
| open | 2018 · 27k mi | classic | $93.6K–$332K ($176K) |
| open | 2018 · 33k mi | classic | $90.9K–$322K ($171K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 48% | Low | 78% |
| 12 mo | UP | 50% | Low | 0% |
| 24 mo | UP | 51% | Low | — |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Housing Starts has historically led it by about 6 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (low conviction — 23% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Housing Starts and Silver, though Housing Starts points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2022
$100K invested 2022-10 → today (3.7 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Trade-Weighted Dollar Index leads by about 8 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.68). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Martin DB4 | 57 | 56 | 8 |
| Bentley Continental (S1, S2, S3) | 69 | 47 | 67 |
| Buick Riviera | 38 | 38 | 22 |
| Bentley Continental GT (2004-2011) | 37 | 42 | 31 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$36,997 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$36,997 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$36,997 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$36,997 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$36,997 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.