This low-confidence read for the Dodge Charger (2006-2023) SRT market shows a depreciation risk of 65.43, paired with low liquidity at 29.37 and appreciation momentum at 31.39. A volatile 'up' direction has a 0.49 probability across 6, 12, and 24-month horizons. LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) is the strongest leading indicator, correlated at 0.79.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 17 yr, 31k mi example, ~$29.2K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 41 confirmed auction sales·118 months tracked·since 2013-05·42 active listings
Did our model work? 0% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 3 scored forecasts: 0% got the direction right, median value error ±204%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
UP
49%
Low
22%
12 mo
UP
49%
Low
0%
24 mo
UP
49%
Low
—
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. 2-Year Treasury Yield has historically led it by about 11 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE 2-Year Treasury Yield rose 29%. THEREFORE, given its usual 11-month head start, we lean DOWN — about −1% (≈ −$329) over the next 11 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation -0.60, 26 months overlap).
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (low conviction — 18% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by 2-Year Treasury Yield and Trade-Weighted Dollar Index, though 2-Year Treasury Yield points the other way.
Trend and leading indicators agree — both point up. Higher-conviction read.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2013
$100K invested 2013-05 → today (13.3 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $146K━ S&P 500 $559K━ Gold $314K━ Luxury $467K━ Housing $219K
Roughly tracked inflation — flat in real terms. The Dodge Charger (2006-2023) SRT roughly 1.5×'d your money (a real, inflation-adjusted 1.0× gain). It LAGGED the stock market by about 74% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-33%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) leads by about 0 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.77). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Unemployment Rate leads by about 16 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.73). Shown shifted forward 16 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Housing Starts leads by about 8 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.71). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
VIX Volatility Index leads by about 13 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.63). Shown shifted forward 13 months so its turns line up with the market's.
2-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 11 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.60). Shown shifted forward 11 months so its turns line up with the market's.
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 0 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.60). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Dodge Charger (2006-2023) SRT┄ High-Yield Bond Spread, shifted +0mo
10Y-2Y Yield Spread leads by about 12 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.59). Shown shifted forward 12 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Trade-Weighted Dollar Index leads by about 12 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.56). Shown shifted forward 12 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Dodge Charger (2006-2023) SRT┄ Trade-Weighted Dollar Index, shifted +12mo
Why We Think This
Appreciation Momentum
37
Undervaluation
50
Liquidity
28
Speculation Opportunity
45
Depreciation Risk
61
Overvaluation
39
sell-through 25%sell through rate
asking -34% vs historic soldasking vs historic spread
-3% vs 2-yr avgpct vs trailing 24mo
-8% vs 12-mo avgpct vs trailing 12mo
asking trend -0.1%/momedian asking trend slope
32% of listings cutting priceprice drop frequency
new-listing velocity 0% of activenew listing velocity
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-3,325 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$3,995 vs prior
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.