Given the thin data, this is a low-confidence read for the Dodge Charger (2006-2023) SRT market, which currently shows a depreciation risk score of 59.04 and an appreciation momentum score of 36.98. The 6-month outlook is flat with a 0.5 probability, shifting to an 'up' direction with a 0.58 probability at 12 months, all within a volatile regime, and LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) is noted as the strongest leading indicator with a 0.79 correlation.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 17 yr, 31k mi example, ~$30.2K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 41 confirmed auction sales·119 months tracked·since 2013-05·76 active listings
Did our model work? 60% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 5 scored forecasts: 60% got the direction right, median value error ±62%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
UP
56%
Low
55%
12 mo
UP
59%
Low
60%
24 mo
UP
64%
Low
—
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Housing Starts has historically led it by about 1 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE Housing Starts fell 5%. THEREFORE, given its usual 1-month head start, we lean DOWN — about −1% (≈ −$193) over the next 1 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation +0.59, 27 months overlap).
If You’d Bought in 2013
$100K invested 2013-05 → today (13.4 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $139K━ S&P 500 $564K━ Gold $294K━ Luxury $421K━ Housing $219K
Lost ground to inflation. The Dodge Charger (2006-2023) SRT roughly 1.4×'d your money (a real 4% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 75% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-37%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Real Disposable Income per Capita leads by about 3 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.69). Shown shifted forward 3 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Dodge Charger (2006-2023) SRT┄ Real Disposable Income per Capita, shifted +3mo
VIX Volatility Index leads by about 14 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.65). Shown shifted forward 14 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Russell 2000 (small cap) leads by about 4 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.61). Shown shifted forward 4 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Housing Starts leads by about 1 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.59). Shown shifted forward 1 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Trade-Weighted Dollar Index leads by about 15 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.59). Shown shifted forward 15 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Dodge Charger (2006-2023) SRT┄ Trade-Weighted Dollar Index, shifted +15mo
Housing Starts leads by about 16 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.59). Shown shifted forward 16 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Nasdaq Composite leads by about 17 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.58). Shown shifted forward 17 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Advance Retail Sales leads by about 10 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.57). Shown shifted forward 10 months so its turns line up with the market's.
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$5,812 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-8,221 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.