Due to a thin data state, this read is low-confidence for the Dodge Charger (2006-2023) R/T market, which shows appreciation momentum at 40.87 and depreciation risk at 58.3, coupled with liquidity at 37.35. A flat direction with 0.5 probability is indicated for the next 6 months, shifting to a down direction with 0.47 probability over 12 months, all within a volatile regime. The Effective Fed Funds Rate, with a correlation of -0.69, is the strongest leading indicator.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 17 yr, 25k mi example, ~$30.6K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 58 confirmed auction sales·67 months tracked·since 2021-04·1645 active listings
Did our model work? 67% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 9 scored forecasts: 67% got the direction right, median value error ±15%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
UP
50%
Low
53%
12 mo
UP
53%
Low
67%
24 mo
UP
56%
Low
—
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Bitcoin (USD) has historically led it by about 5 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE bitcoin rose 5%. THEREFORE, given its usual 5-month head start, we expect little change — about −0% (≈ −$2) over the next 5 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation -0.63, 21 months overlap).
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (low conviction — 8% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by VIX Volatility Index and LVMH (luxury proxy ADR), though VIX Volatility Index points the other way.
⚠ The price trend and leading indicators disagree — momentum may be running ahead of the fundamentals.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-04 → today (5.5 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $85.7K━ S&P 500 $204K━ Gold $232K━ Luxury $69.8K━ Housing $135K₿ Bitcoin $141K (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Dodge Charger (2006-2023) R/T roughly 0.9×'d your money (a real 32% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 58% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-37%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Bitcoin (USD) leads by about 5 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.63). Shown shifted forward 5 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Effective Fed Funds Rate leads by about 23 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.62). Shown shifted forward 23 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) leads by about 5 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.61). Shown shifted forward 5 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Real Disposable Income per Capita leads by about 11 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.59). Shown shifted forward 11 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Dodge Charger (2006-2023) R/T┄ Real Disposable Income per Capita, shifted +11mo
US Regular Gas Price leads by about 1 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.58). Shown shifted forward 1 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Dodge Charger (2006-2023) R/T┄ US Regular Gas Price, shifted +1mo
M2 Money Supply leads by about 17 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.58). Shown shifted forward 17 months so its turns line up with the market's.
VIX Volatility Index leads by about 15 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.55). Shown shifted forward 15 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Advance Retail Sales leads by about 12 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.54). Shown shifted forward 12 months so its turns line up with the market's.
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-8,221 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$5,812 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.