This is a low-confidence read for the Dodge Charger (2006-2023) Scat Pack market due to the thin data state; a downward direction is indicated over 6 months with a 0.59 probability, transitioning to a flat outlook over 12 and 24 months with a 0.5 probability within a volatile regime. Depreciation risk scores 61.39 and overvaluation 56.3 are present, with liquidity at 33.9, while Advance Retail Sales is the strongest leading indicator, showing a 0.74 correlation with a 3-month lead.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 3 yr, 13k mi example, ~$43.1K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 29 confirmed auction sales·65 months tracked·since 2021-05·1290 active listings
Did our model work? 0% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 1 scored forecasts: 0% got the direction right, median value error ±12%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
DOWN
59%
Low
43%
12 mo
FLAT
50%
Low
0%
24 mo
FLAT
50%
Low
—
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. 2-Year Treasury Yield has historically led it by about 5 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE 2-Year Treasury Yield rose 20%. THEREFORE, given its usual 5-month head start, we lean UP — about +1% (≈ +$335) over the next 5 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation +0.62, 24 months overlap).
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-05 → today (5.3 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $99.9K━ S&P 500 $200K━ Gold $230K━ Luxury $72.5K━ Housing $132K₿ Bitcoin $208K (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Dodge Charger (2006-2023) Scat Pack roughly 1.0×'d your money (a real 20% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 50% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-24%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Real Disposable Income per Capita leads by about 24 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.64). Shown shifted forward 24 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Dodge Charger (2006-2023) Scat Pack┄ Real Disposable Income per Capita, shifted +24mo
Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) leads by about 6 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.63). Shown shifted forward 6 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Russell 2000 (small cap) leads by about 6 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.63). Shown shifted forward 6 months so its turns line up with the market's.
2-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 5 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.62). Shown shifted forward 5 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Ethereum (USD) leads by about 7 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.61). Shown shifted forward 7 months so its turns line up with the market's.
US Regular Gas Price leads by about 0 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.60). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Dodge Charger (2006-2023) Scat Pack┄ US Regular Gas Price, shifted +0mo
Gold (futures) leads by about 20 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.60). Shown shifted forward 20 months so its turns line up with the market's.
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-3,325 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$3,995 vs prior
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.