Given the 'thin' data state, this market outlook for the Dodge Charger (2006-2023) Scat Pack is low-confidence. The market currently shows a depreciation risk of 67.91 and low appreciation momentum at 31.18, with a forecast of flat price direction (0.5 probability) across all horizons, indicating a volatile regime. Advance Retail Sales is the strongest leading indicator, correlating at 0.74 with a 3-month lead.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 3 yr, 5k mi example, ~$45.5K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 31 confirmed auction sales·66 months tracked·since 2021-05·1574 active listings
Did our model work? 100% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 2 scored forecasts: 100% got the direction right, median value error ±6%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
DOWN
58%
Low
63%
12 mo
DOWN
57%
Low
100%
24 mo
DOWN
58%
Low
—
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. 2-Year Treasury Yield has historically led it by about 5 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE 2-Year Treasury Yield rose 16%. THEREFORE, given its usual 5-month head start, we lean DOWN — about −1% (≈ −$614) over the next 5 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation +0.62, 25 months overlap).
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (low conviction — 3% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by 2-Year Treasury Yield and US Regular Gas Price, though US Regular Gas Price points the other way.
⚠ The price trend and leading indicators disagree — momentum may be running ahead of the fundamentals.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-05 → today (5.4 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $105K━ S&P 500 $202K━ Gold $215K━ Luxury $65.4K━ Housing $132K₿ Bitcoin $219K (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Dodge Charger (2006-2023) Scat Pack roughly 1.1×'d your money (a real 16% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 48% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-20%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 7 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.66). Shown shifted forward 7 months so its turns line up with the market's.
2-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 5 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.62). Shown shifted forward 5 months so its turns line up with the market's.
US Regular Gas Price leads by about 9 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.57). Shown shifted forward 9 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Dodge Charger (2006-2023) Scat Pack┄ US Regular Gas Price, shifted +9mo
Advance Retail Sales leads by about 3 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.57). Shown shifted forward 3 months so its turns line up with the market's.
30-Year Mortgage Rate leads by about 6 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.56). Shown shifted forward 6 months so its turns line up with the market's.
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 7 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.54). Shown shifted forward 7 months so its turns line up with the market's.
WTI Crude Oil leads by about 10 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.53). Shown shifted forward 10 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Dow Jones Industrial leads by about 8 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.52). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-8,221 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$5,812 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.