The market for the Porsche 911 (997) Targa shows an overvaluation score of 60.29, with appreciation momentum at 53.88 and depreciation risk at 47.8. Forecasts indicate an upward direction over 6, 12, and 24 months, with probabilities ranging from 0.54 to 0.61, within a volatile regime. The strongest leading indicator is the High-Yield Bond Spread, which correlates at -0.79 with a 12-month lead.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 17 yr, 49k mi example, ~$74.3K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 103 confirmed auction sales·64 months tracked·since 2021-06·33 active listings
Did our model work? 57% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 28 scored forecasts: 57% got the direction right, median value error ±17%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
UP
54%
Low
56%
12 mo
UP
57%
Low
57%
24 mo
UP
61%
Low
50%
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. WTI Crude Oil has historically led it by about 19 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE oil prices rose 31%. THEREFORE, given its usual 19-month head start, we lean UP — about +3% (≈ +$2,203) over the next 19 months. Confidence: High (correlation +0.64, 30 months overlap).
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (moderate conviction — 48% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Dow Jones Industrial and WTI Crude Oil, though Dow Jones Industrial points the other way.
⚠ The price trend and leading indicators disagree — momentum may be running ahead of the fundamentals.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-06 → today (5.2 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $112K━ S&P 500 $196K━ Gold $250K━ Luxury $80.5K━ Housing $129K₿ Bitcoin $222K (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Porsche 911 (997) Targa roughly 1.1×'d your money (a real 9% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 43% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-13%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
WTI Crude Oil leads by about 19 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.64). Shown shifted forward 19 months so its turns line up with the market's.
10-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 0 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.60). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Trade-Weighted Dollar Index leads by about 11 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.60). Shown shifted forward 11 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Porsche 911 (997) Targa┄ Trade-Weighted Dollar Index, shifted +11mo
Silver leads by about 4 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.60). Shown shifted forward 4 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Porsche 911 (997) Targa┄ Silver, shifted +4mo
Dow Jones Industrial leads by about 6 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.56). Shown shifted forward 6 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Porsche 911 (997) Targa┄ Dow Jones Industrial, shifted +6mo
S&P 500 leads by about 6 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.55). Shown shifted forward 6 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Porsche 911 (997) Targa┄ S&P 500, shifted +6mo
Trade-Weighted Dollar Index leads by about 7 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.55). Shown shifted forward 7 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Porsche 911 (997) Targa┄ Trade-Weighted Dollar Index, shifted +7mo
Russell 2000 (small cap) leads by about 6 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.55). Shown shifted forward 6 months so its turns line up with the market's.
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$41,000 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-8,513 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-9,000 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$14,015 vs prior
price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-22.2)
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$37,100 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.