The Porsche 911 (997) Targa market currently shows a high overvaluation score of 70.79, alongside appreciation momentum at 68.96 and moderate liquidity at 40.68. A volatile regime is projected across all time horizons, with the 6-month outlook indicating an upward direction at 0.56 probability, shifting to a downward direction at 0.4 probability over 12 months, then upward again at 0.65 probability over 24 months. The High-Yield Bond Spread, with a -0.79 correlation and a 12-month lead, stands as the strongest leading indicator for this market.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 17 yr, 50k mi example, ~$74.0K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 106 confirmed auction sales·65 months tracked·since 2021-06·58 active listings
Did our model work? 59% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 29 scored forecasts: 59% got the direction right, median value error ±19%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
UP
56%
Low
49%
12 mo
DOWN
40%
Low
59%
24 mo
UP
65%
Low
53%
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 100% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Bitcoin (USD) and 10Y-2Y Yield Spread.
⚠ The price trend and leading indicators disagree — momentum may be running ahead of the fundamentals.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-06 → today (5.3 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $111K━ S&P 500 $198K━ Gold $232K━ Luxury $66.5K━ Housing $129K₿ Bitcoin $233K (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Porsche 911 (997) Targa roughly 1.1×'d your money (a real 11% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 44% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-14%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Gold (futures) leads by about 23 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.78). Shown shifted forward 23 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Advance Retail Sales leads by about 2 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.76). Shown shifted forward 2 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Dow Jones Industrial leads by about 12 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.75). Shown shifted forward 12 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Porsche 911 (997) Targa┄ Dow Jones Industrial, shifted +12mo
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 20 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.74). Shown shifted forward 20 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Porsche 911 (997) Targa┄ Case-Shiller National Home Price, shifted +20mo
S&P 500 leads by about 4 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.74). Shown shifted forward 4 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Porsche 911 (997) Targa┄ S&P 500, shifted +4mo
Nonfarm Payrolls (jobs) leads by about 14 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.74). Shown shifted forward 14 months so its turns line up with the market's.
PCE Price Index leads by about 17 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.74). Shown shifted forward 17 months so its turns line up with the market's.
CPI (All Urban Consumers) leads by about 17 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.73). Shown shifted forward 17 months so its turns line up with the market's.
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$41,000 vs prior
price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-10.4)
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-51,000 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$41,000 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.