Porsche 911 (997) Carrera S
The Porsche 911 (997) Carrera S market shows signals of overvaluation at 56.45 and lower liquidity at 41.02. A downward trend has a probability of 0.47 and 0.44 for the 6 and 12-month horizons respectively, within a volatile regime. The 24-month outlook suggests a flat trend with a probability of 0.5 in a volatile regime, with the High-Yield Bond Spread acting as a strong leading indicator correlating at -0.83 with an 11-month lead.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 18 yr, 54k mi example, ~$58.3K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 52% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 50 scored forecasts: 52% got the direction right, median value error ±10%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 942 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±18%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 2005 · 48k mi | $39.6K–$88.5K | $49.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-28 | 2007 · 43k mi | $41.2K–$91.9K | $54.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-28 | 2005 · 107k mi | $27.6K–$61.6K | $45.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-26 | 2010 · 84k mi | $30.4K–$67.9K | $83.0K | ✗ |
| 2026-09-26 | 2006 · 75k mi | $32.5K–$72.6K | $33.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-24 | 2007 · 95k mi | $28.5K–$63.5K | $43.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-22 | 2011 · 76k mi | $32.3K–$72.0K | $56.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-21 | 2008 · 80k mi | $31.3K–$69.8K | $44.0K | ✓ |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | DOWN | 47% | Low | 54% |
| 12 mo | DOWN | 44% | Low | 52% |
| 24 mo | FLAT | 50% | Low | 82% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (low conviction — 27% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Gold (futures) and Effective Fed Funds Rate, though Gold (futures) points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2018
$100K invested 2018-07 → today (8.2 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 20 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.77). Shown shifted forward 20 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Porsche 911 (997) Targa | 28 | 75 | 38 |
| Porsche 911 GT3 (997) | 22 | 78 | 59 |
| Porsche 911 Turbo (997) | 44 | 66 | 48 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-51,000 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$41,000 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-51,000 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$41,000 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.