Porsche 911 (997) Carrera S
The market for the Porsche 911 (997) Carrera S shows appreciation momentum at 54.92, with forecasts pointing to an 'up' direction in a volatile regime over 6, 12, and 24 months, with probabilities ranging from 0.5 to 0.57. Depreciation risk is near neutral at 50.11, and liquidity is 46.3. The 10-Year Treasury Yield serves as a strong leading indicator with a 0.7 correlation, typically preceding market shifts by 3 months.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 18 yr, 53k mi example, ~$61.3K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 57% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 47 scored forecasts: 57% got the direction right, median value error ±8%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 237 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±15%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | 2005 · 11k mi | $54.0K–$119K | $48.7K | ✗ |
| 2026-06-26 | 2005 · 16k mi | $53.1K–$117K | $76.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-09 | 2010 · 10k mi | $53.9K–$119K | $99.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-03 | 2006 · 9k mi | $53.7K–$119K | $96.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-23 | 2006 · 5k mi | $53.5K–$118K | $38.0K | ✗ |
| 2026-01-14 | 2009 · 9k mi | $52.0K–$115K | $94.9K | ✓ |
| 2025-12-15 | 2010 · 7k mi | $50.5K–$112K | $140K | ✗ |
| 2025-12-05 | 2008 · 6k mi | $50.2K–$111K | $78.4K | ✓ |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 50% | Moderate | 60% |
| 12 mo | UP | 53% | Moderate | 57% |
| 24 mo | UP | 57% | Moderate | 57% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment has historically led it by about 12 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 79% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Gold (futures), though US Regular Gas Price points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2018
$100K invested 2018-07 → today (8.0 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment leads by about 12 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.56). Shown shifted forward 12 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Porsche 911 (997) Targa | 42 | 49 | 51 |
| Porsche 911 GT3 (997) | 33 | 59 | 48 |
| Porsche 911 Turbo (997) | 44 | 63 | 46 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$7,310 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-29,002 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-29,002 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$40,995 vs prior
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-10.1)
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-15,195 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.