Porsche 911 Turbo (991)
The Porsche 911 Turbo (991) market shows appreciation momentum at 57.65 and overvaluation at 55.18, alongside a speculation opportunity score of 56.36. The data signals a flat direction for 6 months (probability 0.5) and a downward trend for 12 months (probability 0.44), before an indicated upward trend over 24 months (probability 0.6), with all forecasts pointing to a volatile regime. The strongest leading indicator observed for this market is the High-Yield Bond Spread, with a correlation of -0.81.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 9 yr, 17k mi example, ~$146K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 55% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 47 scored forecasts: 55% got the direction right, median value error ±13%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 358 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±15%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | 2017 · 16k mi | $91.6K–$204K | $175K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-23 | 2015 · 17k mi | $91.2K–$204K | $153K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-17 | 2015 · 12k mi | $93.7K–$209K | $130K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-11 | 2019 · 17k mi | $91.1K–$203K | $190K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-10 | 2013 · 31k mi | $82.4K–$184K | $136K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-02 | 2017 · 16k mi | $91.6K–$204K | $171K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-01 | 2018 · 42k mi | $75.0K–$167K | $141K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-31 | 2014 · 74k mi | $60.5K–$135K | $87.4K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2017 | C&B | $86.8K–$249K ($147K) |
| open | 2015 · 5k mi | classic | $110K–$311K ($185K) |
| open | 2015 · 41k mi | classic | $65.5K–$185K ($110K) |
| open | 2014 · 60k mi | classic | $56.3K–$158K ($94.3K) |
| open | 2014 · 50k mi | classic | $60.3K–$169K ($101K) |
| open | 2016 · 26k mi | classic | $74.2K–$208K ($124K) |
| open | 2015 · 111k mi | classic | $54.0K–$152K ($90.5K) |
| open | 2014 · 13k mi | ebay | $76.2K–$245K ($136K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | FLAT | 50% | Low | 51% |
| 12 mo | DOWN | 44% | Low | 55% |
| 24 mo | UP | 60% | Low | 80% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. High-Yield Bond Spread has historically led it by about 11 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
If You’d Bought in 2019
$100K invested 2019-01 → today (7.8 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 21 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.81). Shown shifted forward 21 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Porsche 911 GT2 RS (991) | 9 | 73 | 40 |
| Porsche 911 GT3 (991) | 45 | 63 | 59 |
| Porsche 911 GTS (991) | 58 | 57 | 50 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-98,930 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$25,847 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$25,847 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-98,930 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.