Porsche 911 GTS (991)
The Porsche 911 GTS (991) market currently shows signals pointing to potential upward movement across 6, 12, and 24-month horizons, with probabilities ranging from 0.52 to 0.58, but within a volatile regime. This assessment carries a confidence level of 0.935, with appreciation momentum at 53.64 and undervaluation at 55.65. The strongest leading indicator for this market is the High-Yield Bond Spread, which exhibits a 0.79 correlation over a 23-month lead.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 8 yr, 18k mi example, ~$136K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 53% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 45 scored forecasts: 53% got the direction right, median value error ±10%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 262 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±12%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | 2018 · 41k mi | $74.7K–$167K | $113K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-20 | 2019 · 16k mi | $93.0K–$208K | $127K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-18 | 2019 · 25k mi | $85.5K–$191K | $133K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-18 | 2015 · 34k mi | $79.4K–$177K | $122K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-10 | 2019 · 19k mi | $90.8K–$203K | $136K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-09 | 2017 · 10k mi | $99.6K–$222K | $116K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-27 | 2016 · 2k mi | $121K–$270K | $158K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-27 | 2012 · 43k mi | $72.5K–$162K | $116K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 7 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2016 · 33k mi | ebay | $72.4K–$208K ($123K) |
| open | 2018 | C&B | $81.4K–$234K ($138K) |
| open | 2018 · 42k mi | classic | $62.2K–$175K ($104K) |
| open | 2016 · 23k mi | classic | $79.1K–$254K ($142K) |
| open | 2016 · 34k mi | classic | $78.5K–$252K ($141K) |
| open | 2016 · 16k mi | classic | $81.5K–$261K ($146K) |
| open | 2016 · 43k mi | classic | $76.4K–$245K ($137K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 52% | Low | 57% |
| 12 mo | UP | 55% | Low | 53% |
| 24 mo | UP | 58% | Low | 73% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling sideways over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 73% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Housing Starts and Initial Jobless Claims, though Initial Jobless Claims points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2020
$100K invested 2020-03 → today (6.6 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Gold (futures) leads by about 2 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.78). Shown shifted forward 2 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Porsche 911 GT2 RS (991) | 9 | 73 | 40 |
| Porsche 911 GT3 (991) | 45 | 63 | 59 |
| Porsche 911 Turbo (991) | 55 | 58 | 49 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- inventory spike Inventory spiked (robust z=4.1)
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$20,000 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-30,729 vs prior
- inventory spike Inventory spiked (robust z=4.1)
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$20,000 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-30,729 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.