Pontiac Firebird (1993-2002) Trans Am WS6
Flagged undervalued because sell-through 91%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 24 yr, 19k mi example, ~$29.3K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 58% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 43 scored forecasts: 58% got the direction right, median value error ±18%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 252 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±17%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | 1999 · 34k mi | $14.2K–$46.2K | $30.8K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-06 | 2002 · 6k mi | $18.8K–$61.0K | $39.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-05 | 2002 · 86k mi | $9.6K–$31.1K | $25.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-31 | 2000 · 44k mi | $13.1K–$42.7K | $43.0K | ✗ |
| 2026-07-30 | 2002 · 0k mi | $24.8K–$80.5K | $80.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-25 | 2002 · 1k mi | $22.5K–$73.0K | $35.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-23 | 2000 · 31k mi | $14.4K–$46.8K | $30.8K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-23 | 1998 · 99k mi | $8.8K–$28.6K | $9.3K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2002 | C&B | $13.5K–$63.7K ($29.3K) |
| open | 2002 · 31k mi | ebay | $12.4K–$58.5K ($26.9K) |
| open | 2000 · 92k mi | ebay | $7.9K–$37.2K ($17.1K) |
| open | 2000 · 113k mi | BaT | $7.0K–$33.2K ($15.2K) |
| open | 1998 · 141k mi | ebay | $6.2K–$29.3K ($13.5K) |
| open | 2002 · 1k mi | ebay | $19.7K–$93.1K ($42.8K) |
| open | 1998 | C&B | $13.5K–$63.8K ($29.3K) |
| open | 2002 · 1k mi | ebay | $19.6K–$92.8K ($42.6K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | DOWN | 50% | Low | 59% |
| 12 mo | DOWN | 48% | Low | 58% |
| 24 mo | DOWN | 47% | Low | 48% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. High-Yield Bond Spread has historically led it by about 5 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 74% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Gold (futures) and 10-Year Treasury Yield, though US Regular Gas Price points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2013
$100K invested 2013-04 → today (13.3 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 5 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.76). Shown shifted forward 5 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pontiac Firebird (1993-2002) Formula | 53 | 46 | 45 |
| Pontiac Firebird (1993-2002) Trans Am | 42 | 64 | 33 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-11,994 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$16,650 vs prior
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=32.6)
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$16,650 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-11,994 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.