Flagged undervalued because -9% vs 2-yr avg, -6% vs 3-yr trend, and inventory -0%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 30 yr, 30k mi example, ~$21.6K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 94 confirmed auction sales·63 months tracked·since 2021-07·25 active listings
Did our model work? 44% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 25 scored forecasts: 44% got the direction right, median value error ±67%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
UP
51%
Low
71%
12 mo
UP
53%
Low
44%
24 mo
UP
55%
Low
54%
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. US Metro Mean Temperature has historically led it by about 20 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE US Metro Mean Temperature rose 509%. THEREFORE, given its usual 20-month head start, we lean UP — about +3% (≈ +$648) over the next 20 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation +0.55, 27 months overlap).
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (low conviction — 2% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Housing Starts and Personal Savings Rate, though Housing Starts points the other way.
Trend and leading indicators agree — both point up. Higher-conviction read.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-07 → today (5.2 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $155K━ S&P 500 $191K━ Gold $241K━ Luxury $72.5K━ Housing $127K₿ Bitcoin $187K (off-scale)
Solid store of value, but lagged the stock market. The Pontiac Firebird (1993-2002) Trans Am roughly 1.6×'d your money (a real, inflation-adjusted 1.3× gain). It LAGGED the stock market by about 19% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It beat housing (+22%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
US Metro Mean Temperature leads by about 20 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.55). Shown shifted forward 20 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Pontiac Firebird (1993-2002) Trans Am┄ US Metro Mean Temperature, shifted +20mo
Personal Savings Rate leads by about 3 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.53). Shown shifted forward 3 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Pontiac Firebird (1993-2002) Trans Am┄ Personal Savings Rate, shifted +3mo
Real Disposable Income per Capita leads by about 3 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.52). Shown shifted forward 3 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Pontiac Firebird (1993-2002) Trans Am┄ Real Disposable Income per Capita, shifted +3mo
Initial Jobless Claims leads by about 1 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.52). Shown shifted forward 1 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Gold (futures) leads by about 12 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.51). Shown shifted forward 12 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Pontiac Firebird (1993-2002) Trans Am┄ Gold (futures), shifted +12mo
Initial Jobless Claims leads by about 1 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.51). Shown shifted forward 1 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Housing Starts leads by about 23 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.50). Shown shifted forward 23 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Pontiac Firebird (1993-2002) Trans Am┄ Housing Starts, shifted +23mo
Housing Starts leads by about 6 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.49). Shown shifted forward 6 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Pontiac Firebird (1993-2002) Trans Am┄ Housing Starts, shifted +6mo
Why We Think This
Appreciation Momentum
35
Undervaluation
47
Liquidity
35
Speculation Opportunity
45
Depreciation Risk
64
Overvaluation
53
asking +41% vs historic soldasking vs historic spread
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$7,250 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-3,495 vs prior
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.