BUILDINGStill gathering enough sold history to call this market.
Insufficient comps · 1 sold comps
Fair value$26.5K ($23.3K–$29.7K)
Typical ask$25.0K
Recent sold$9.9K
Current valueInsufficient
12-mo trendRoughly flat · 5-in-10 up · 52% calls right
Buyer: Too few confirmed sales to anchor a fair price — treat the number as a rough guide.
Seller: Thin sold history here; comparable sales are limited — price conservatively.
Watcher: Not enough confirmed sales yet — worth a watch as data accrues.
Flagged undervalued because inventory -0%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 26 yr, 22k mi example, ~$26.5K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 22 confirmed auction sales·31 months tracked·since 2024-01·65 active listings
Did our model work? 52% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 33 scored forecasts: 52% got the direction right, median value error ±38%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
FLAT
50%
Low
64%
12 mo
FLAT
50%
Low
52%
24 mo
UP
57%
Low
48%
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. High-Yield Bond Spread has historically led it by about 2 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE credit spreads held roughly flat. THEREFORE, given its usual 2-month head start, we lean DOWN — about −1% (≈ −$252) over the next 2 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation -0.45, 20 months overlap).
If You’d Bought in 2024
$100K invested 2024-01 → today (2.5 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $114K━ S&P 500 $162K━ Gold $200K━ Luxury $72.4K━ Housing $106K₿ Bitcoin $139K (off-scale)
Roughly tracked inflation — flat in real terms. The Pontiac Firebird (1993-2002) Trans Am roughly 1.1×'d your money (a real, inflation-adjusted 1.1× gain). It LAGGED the stock market by about 29% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It beat housing (+8%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) leads by about 11 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.47). Shown shifted forward 11 months so its turns line up with the market's.
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 2 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.45). Shown shifted forward 2 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Pontiac Firebird (1993-2002) Trans Am┄ High-Yield Bond Spread, shifted +2mo
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 8 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.43). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Pontiac Firebird (1993-2002) Trans Am┄ High-Yield Bond Spread, shifted +8mo
Silver leads by about 4 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.43). Shown shifted forward 4 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Pontiac Firebird (1993-2002) Trans Am┄ Silver, shifted +4mo
Ethereum (USD) leads by about 2 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.42). Shown shifted forward 2 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Pontiac Firebird (1993-2002) Trans Am┄ Ethereum (USD), shifted +2mo
Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) leads by about 2 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.41). Shown shifted forward 2 months so its turns line up with the market's.
US Regular Gas Price leads by about 2 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.41). Shown shifted forward 2 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Pontiac Firebird (1993-2002) Trans Am┄ US Regular Gas Price, shifted +2mo
Housing Starts leads by about 6 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.39). Shown shifted forward 6 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Pontiac Firebird (1993-2002) Trans Am┄ Housing Starts, shifted +6mo
Why We Think This
Appreciation Momentum
50
Undervaluation
14
Liquidity
16
Speculation Opportunity
27
Depreciation Risk
69
Overvaluation
79
asking +96% vs historic soldasking vs historic spread
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$4,000 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-3,500 vs prior
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.