Showing appreciation momentum: sale prices +1.8%/mo, and +4% vs 12-mo avg.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 28 yr, 66k mi example, ~$19.3K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 128 confirmed auction sales·161 months tracked·since 2013-05·11 active listings
Did our model work? 59% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 46 scored forecasts: 59% got the direction right, median value error ±36%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 8 in 10
We replayed 30 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±29%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 8 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly low on average.
Sold
Car
Our range
Hammer
2026-06-26
1996 · 20k mi
$11.5K–$36.3K
$24.2K
✓
2026-06-21
1997 · 151k mi
$4.1K–$13.1K
$10.0K
✓
2026-06-09
1997 · 130k mi
$4.7K–$14.7K
$10.0K
✓
2026-06-06
1994 · 16k mi
$10.9K–$34.3K
$18.1K
✓
2026-05-29
1995 · 104k mi
$5.4K–$17.1K
$5.7K
✓
2026-01-23
1999 · 17k mi
$8.0K–$25.1K
$21.3K
✓
2026-01-20
1996 · 28k mi
$7.9K–$25.0K
$23.1K
✓
2025-11-07
1995 · 54k mi
$6.7K–$21.2K
$10.5K
✓
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
UP
52%
Low
65%
12 mo
UP
54%
Low
59%
24 mo
UP
56%
Low
68%
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Core CPI (ex food/energy) has historically led it by about 5 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE Core CPI (ex food/energy) rose 1%. THEREFORE, given its usual 5-month head start, we expect little change — about +0% (≈ +$24) over the next 5 months. Confidence: High (correlation +0.76, 46 months overlap).
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 100% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Core CPI (ex food/energy) and 2-Year Treasury Yield.
Trend and leading indicators agree — both point up. Higher-conviction read.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2013
$100K invested 2013-05 → today (13.3 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $150K━ S&P 500 $596K━ Gold $314K━ Luxury $502K━ Housing $219K
Roughly tracked inflation — flat in real terms. The Pontiac Firebird (1993-2002) Formula roughly 1.5×'d your money (a real, inflation-adjusted 1.0× gain). It LAGGED the stock market by about 75% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-31%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Unemployment Rate leads by about 0 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.78). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) leads by about 22 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.76). Shown shifted forward 22 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Core CPI (ex food/energy) leads by about 5 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.76). Shown shifted forward 5 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Real Disposable Income per Capita leads by about 24 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.76). Shown shifted forward 24 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Pontiac Firebird (1993-2002) Formula┄ Real Disposable Income per Capita, shifted +24mo
Nasdaq Composite leads by about 22 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.75). Shown shifted forward 22 months so its turns line up with the market's.
2-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 24 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.75). Shown shifted forward 24 months so its turns line up with the market's.
30-Year Mortgage Rate leads by about 24 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.75). Shown shifted forward 24 months so its turns line up with the market's.
10-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 24 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.74). Shown shifted forward 24 months so its turns line up with the market's.
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-3,495 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$7,250 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.