Flagged undervalued because inventory -1%, -63% vs 2-yr avg, and -67% vs 3-yr trend.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 28 yr, 60k mi example, ~$18.2K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 114 confirmed auction sales·159 months tracked·since 2013-05·21 active listings
Did our model work? 45% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 42 scored forecasts: 45% got the direction right, median value error ±65%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
UP
51%
Low
50%
12 mo
UP
52%
Low
45%
24 mo
UP
53%
Low
40%
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. CPI (All Urban Consumers) has historically led it by about 11 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE CPI (All Urban Consumers) rose 4%. THEREFORE, given its usual 11-month head start, we lean UP — about +1% (≈ +$267) over the next 11 months. Confidence: High (correlation +0.70, 42 months overlap).
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (low conviction — 0% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Unemployment Rate and CPI (All Urban Consumers), though Unemployment Rate points the other way.
⚠ The price trend and leading indicators disagree — momentum may be running ahead of the fundamentals.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2013
$100K invested 2013-05 → today (13.2 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $143K━ S&P 500 $581K━ Gold $295K━ Luxury $567K━ Housing $214K
Roughly tracked inflation — flat in real terms. The Pontiac Firebird (1993-2002) Formula roughly 1.4×'d your money (a real 1% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 75% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-33%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Housing Starts leads by about 21 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.73). Shown shifted forward 21 months so its turns line up with the market's.
CPI (All Urban Consumers) leads by about 11 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.70). Shown shifted forward 11 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Unemployment Rate leads by about 3 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.69). Shown shifted forward 3 months so its turns line up with the market's.
30-Year Mortgage Rate leads by about 0 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.68). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 17 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.67). Shown shifted forward 17 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Pontiac Firebird (1993-2002) Formula┄ Case-Shiller National Home Price, shifted +17mo
LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) leads by about 11 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.67). Shown shifted forward 11 months so its turns line up with the market's.
US Regular Gas Price leads by about 6 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.67). Shown shifted forward 6 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Pontiac Firebird (1993-2002) Formula┄ US Regular Gas Price, shifted +6mo
Why We Think This
Appreciation Momentum
29
Undervaluation
38
Liquidity
19
Speculation Opportunity
35
Depreciation Risk
69
Overvaluation
58
sell-through 80%sell through rate
asking +59% vs historic soldasking vs historic spread
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$4,000 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-3,500 vs prior
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.