Blended value of a standard 28 yr, 50k mi example, ~$68.2K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 186 confirmed sales·17 months tracked·since 2004-01·153 active listings
Auction Scorecard live
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
Closes
Car
Source
Our predicted range
open
1998 · 21k mi
classic
$44.5K–$143K ($79.7K)
open
1998 · 53k mi
classic
$44.5K–$143K ($79.7K)
open
1997 · 16k mi
classic
$44.5K–$143K ($79.7K)
open
2000 · 6k mi
classic
$44.5K–$143K ($79.7K)
open
2001 · 31k mi
classic
$44.5K–$143K ($79.7K)
open
1998 · 54k mi
classic
$44.5K–$143K ($79.7K)
open
2001 · 13k mi
classic
$44.5K–$143K ($79.7K)
open
1997 · 12k mi
classic
$44.5K–$143K ($79.7K)
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
DOWN
56%
Low
—
12 mo
DOWN
57%
Low
—
24 mo
DOWN
58%
Low
—
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Silver has historically led it by about 5 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE Silver fell 9%. THEREFORE, given its usual 5-month head start, we lean DOWN — about −2% (≈ −$1,332) over the next 5 months. Confidence: High (correlation +0.68, 41 months overlap).
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 100% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Silver and Russell 2000 (small cap).
⚠ The price trend and leading indicators disagree — momentum may be running ahead of the fundamentals.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2004
$100K invested 2004-01 → today (22.4 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $85.3K━ Housing $234K
Lost ground to inflation. The Dodge Viper GTS roughly 0.9×'d your money (a real 52% LOSS to inflation). It trailed housing (-64%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Silver leads by about 5 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.68). Shown shifted forward 5 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Dodge Viper GTS┄ Silver, shifted +5mo
Gold (futures) leads by about 22 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.67). Shown shifted forward 22 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Dodge Viper GTS┄ Gold (futures), shifted +22mo
Russell 2000 (small cap) leads by about 8 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.58). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Dodge Viper GTS┄ Russell 2000 (small cap), shifted +8mo
10-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 11 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.57). Shown shifted forward 11 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Housing Starts leads by about 1 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.57). Shown shifted forward 1 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Dodge Viper GTS┄ Housing Starts, shifted +1mo
US Regular Gas Price leads by about 4 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.54). Shown shifted forward 4 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Dodge Viper GTS┄ US Regular Gas Price, shifted +4mo
VIX Volatility Index leads by about 3 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.54). Shown shifted forward 3 months so its turns line up with the market's.
U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment leads by about 15 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.54). Shown shifted forward 15 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Dodge Viper GTS┄ U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment, shifted +15mo
Why We Think This
Appreciation Momentum
71
Undervaluation
30
Liquidity
47
Speculation Opportunity
45
Depreciation Risk
41
Overvaluation
72
+64% vs 3-yr trendpct vs trailing 36mo
+60% vs 2-yr avgpct vs trailing 24mo
asking +33% vs historic soldasking vs historic spread
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$19,999 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$19,999 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$41,995 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$19,999 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$41,995 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.