Showing appreciation momentum: sale prices +1.7%/mo, and +31% vs 12-mo avg.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 24 yr, 10k mi example, ~$84.0K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 6 scored forecasts: 100% got the direction right, median value error ±19%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
DOWN
44%
Low
75%
12 mo
UP
61%
Low
100%
24 mo
UP
66%
Low
—
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. 10-Year Treasury Yield has historically led it by about 22 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE the 10-year Treasury yield rose 15%. THEREFORE, given its usual 22-month head start, we expect little change — about −0% (≈ −$359) over the next 22 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation -0.87, 18 months overlap).
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (low conviction — 1% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by 30-Year Mortgage Rate and VIX Volatility Index, though 30-Year Mortgage Rate points the other way.
Trend and leading indicators agree — both point up. Higher-conviction read.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2017
$100K invested 2017-09 → today (8.8 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $114K━ S&P 500 $334K━ Gold $354K━ Luxury $264K━ Housing $169K₿ Bitcoin ×15 (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Dodge Viper (1996-2002) ACR roughly 1.1×'d your money (a real 16% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 66% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-33%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
10-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 22 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.87). Shown shifted forward 22 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Real Disposable Income per Capita leads by about 20 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.83). Shown shifted forward 20 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Dodge Viper (1996-2002) ACR┄ Real Disposable Income per Capita, shifted +20mo
Bitcoin (USD) leads by about 11 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.83). Shown shifted forward 11 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Dow Jones Industrial leads by about 8 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.81). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Dodge Viper (1996-2002) ACR┄ Dow Jones Industrial, shifted +8mo
S&P 500 leads by about 5 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.80). Shown shifted forward 5 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Gold (futures) leads by about 21 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.79). Shown shifted forward 21 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Gold (futures) leads by about 19 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.79). Shown shifted forward 19 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Nasdaq Composite leads by about 11 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.78). Shown shifted forward 11 months so its turns line up with the market's.
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$25,001 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-19,100 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$25,001 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-19,100 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$25,001 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-19,100 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.