Blended value of a standard 11 yr, 8k mi example, ~$130K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 43 confirmed sales·83 months tracked·since 2017-01·12 active listings
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
DOWN
44%
Low
33%
12 mo
DOWN
39%
Low
—
24 mo
UP
67%
Low
—
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Advance Retail Sales has historically led it by about 3 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE Advance Retail Sales rose 3%. THEREFORE, given its usual 3-month head start, we lean DOWN — about −1% (≈ −$1,501) over the next 3 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation -0.77, 19 months overlap).
If You’d Bought in 2017
$100K invested 2017-01 → today (9.4 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $130K━ S&P 500 $374K━ Gold $376K━ Luxury $371K━ Housing $179K₿ Bitcoin ×66 (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Dodge Viper (2013-2017) GTS roughly 1.3×'d your money (a real 5% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 65% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-27%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 0 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.79). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Dodge Viper (2013-2017) GTS┄ High-Yield Bond Spread, shifted +0mo
Silver leads by about 15 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.79). Shown shifted forward 15 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Advance Retail Sales leads by about 3 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.77). Shown shifted forward 3 months so its turns line up with the market's.
WTI Crude Oil leads by about 9 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.71). Shown shifted forward 9 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) leads by about 8 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.69). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Nasdaq Composite leads by about 12 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.68). Shown shifted forward 12 months so its turns line up with the market's.
10Y-2Y Yield Spread leads by about 9 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.68). Shown shifted forward 9 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Russell 2000 (small cap) leads by about 17 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.68). Shown shifted forward 17 months so its turns line up with the market's.
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-148,919 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$80,989 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-44,000 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$80,989 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-44,000 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$99,992 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.