Flagged undervalued because inventory -1%, asking +0% vs historic sold, and sell-through 98%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 11 yr, 8k mi example, ~$133K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 39 confirmed auction sales·84 months tracked·since 2017-01·13 active listings
Did our model work? 75% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 4 scored forecasts: 75% got the direction right, median value error ±9%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
UP
51%
Low
60%
12 mo
FLAT
50%
Low
75%
24 mo
UP
61%
Low
—
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (moderate conviction — 50% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Advance Retail Sales and Effective Fed Funds Rate, though Russell 2000 (small cap) points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2017
$100K invested 2017-01 → today (9.5 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $121K━ S&P 500 $374K━ Gold $338K━ Luxury $373K━ Housing $180K₿ Bitcoin ×67 (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Dodge Viper (2013-2017) GTS roughly 1.2×'d your money (a real 12% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 68% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-33%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 0 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.81). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Dodge Viper (2013-2017) GTS┄ High-Yield Bond Spread, shifted +0mo
Silver leads by about 15 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.71). Shown shifted forward 15 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Nasdaq Composite leads by about 12 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.67). Shown shifted forward 12 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Russell 2000 (small cap) leads by about 17 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.66). Shown shifted forward 17 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) leads by about 11 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.64). Shown shifted forward 11 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Bitcoin (USD) leads by about 17 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.63). Shown shifted forward 17 months so its turns line up with the market's.
U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment leads by about 2 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.62). Shown shifted forward 2 months so its turns line up with the market's.
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$159,980 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-110,900 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-110,900 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$159,980 vs prior
price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-5.5)
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-110,900 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.