Flagged undervalued because -51% vs 2-yr avg, -46% vs 3-yr trend, and sell-through 98%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 8 yr, 4k mi example, ~$259K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 101 confirmed sales·76 months tracked·since 2019-05·1 active listings
Did our model work? 77% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 22 scored forecasts: 77% got the direction right, median value error ±21%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
UP
57%
Low
68%
12 mo
UP
62%
Low
77%
24 mo
UP
68%
Low
60%
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Housing Starts has historically led it by about 6 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE Housing Starts rose 15%. THEREFORE, given its usual 6-month head start, we lean UP — about +6% (≈ +$15,333) over the next 6 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation +0.72, 23 months overlap).
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (low conviction — 27% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by 30-Year Mortgage Rate and Initial Jobless Claims, though Initial Jobless Claims points the other way.
⚠ The price trend and leading indicators disagree — momentum may be running ahead of the fundamentals.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2019
$100K invested 2019-05 → today (7.1 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $156K━ S&P 500 $306K━ Gold $348K━ Luxury $187K━ Housing $158K₿ Bitcoin $745K (off-scale)
Solid store of value, but lagged the stock market. The Dodge Viper (2013-2017) ACR roughly 1.6×'d your money (a real, inflation-adjusted 1.2× gain). It LAGGED the stock market by about 49% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-1%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 2 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.78). Shown shifted forward 2 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Dodge Viper (2013-2017) ACR┄ Case-Shiller National Home Price, shifted +2mo
30-Year Mortgage Rate leads by about 4 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.76). Shown shifted forward 4 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Housing Starts leads by about 6 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.72). Shown shifted forward 6 months so its turns line up with the market's.
LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) leads by about 12 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.72). Shown shifted forward 12 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Nonfarm Payrolls (jobs) leads by about 4 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.71). Shown shifted forward 4 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Trade-Weighted Dollar Index leads by about 6 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.71). Shown shifted forward 6 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Dodge Viper (2013-2017) ACR┄ Trade-Weighted Dollar Index, shifted +6mo
WTI Crude Oil leads by about 18 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.71). Shown shifted forward 18 months so its turns line up with the market's.
10-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 5 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.70). Shown shifted forward 5 months so its turns line up with the market's.
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-148,919 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$80,989 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-44,000 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$80,989 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-44,000 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$99,992 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.