Showing appreciation momentum: sale prices +5.5%/mo, +33% vs 12-mo avg, and asking trend +0.1%/mo.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 9 yr, 4k mi example, ~$397K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 107 confirmed auction sales·80 months tracked·since 2019-05·83 active listings
Did our model work? 89% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 28 scored forecasts: 89% got the direction right, median value error ±32%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
DOWN
38%
Low
50%
12 mo
DOWN
33%
Low
89%
24 mo
UP
74%
Low
100%
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 75% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Silver and Effective Fed Funds Rate, though Real Disposable Income per Capita points the other way.
⚠ The price trend and leading indicators disagree — momentum may be running ahead of the fundamentals.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2019
$100K invested 2019-05 → today (7.4 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $202K━ S&P 500 $315K━ Gold $314K━ Luxury $148K━ Housing $161K₿ Bitcoin $952K (off-scale)
Solid store of value, but lagged the stock market. The Dodge Viper (2013-2017) ACR roughly 2.0×'d your money (a real, inflation-adjusted 1.5× gain). It LAGGED the stock market by about 36% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It beat housing (+25%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Advance Retail Sales leads by about 9 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.97). Shown shifted forward 9 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 22 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.97). Shown shifted forward 22 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Dodge Viper (2013-2017) ACR┄ Case-Shiller National Home Price, shifted +22mo
PCE Price Index leads by about 4 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.96). Shown shifted forward 4 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Core CPI (ex food/energy) leads by about 24 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.96). Shown shifted forward 24 months so its turns line up with the market's.
CPI (All Urban Consumers) leads by about 4 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.96). Shown shifted forward 4 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Nonfarm Payrolls (jobs) leads by about 0 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.95). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Dow Jones Industrial leads by about 14 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.92). Shown shifted forward 14 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Dodge Viper (2013-2017) ACR┄ Dow Jones Industrial, shifted +14mo
Why We Think This
Appreciation Momentum
78
Undervaluation
8
Liquidity
32
Speculation Opportunity
32
Depreciation Risk
39
Overvaluation
94
asking +191% vs historic soldasking vs historic spread
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$101,292 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-44,000 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-44,000 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$101,292 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-44,000 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$101,292 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.