Flagged undervalued because -47% vs 2-yr avg, and -44% vs 3-yr trend.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 8 yr, 4k mi example, ~$379K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 104 confirmed auction sales·79 months tracked·since 2019-05·54 active listings
Did our model work? 65% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 26 scored forecasts: 65% got the direction right, median value error ±38%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
UP
53%
Low
75%
12 mo
UP
55%
Low
65%
24 mo
UP
57%
Low
57%
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 74% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) and Bitcoin (USD), though Bitcoin (USD) points the other way.
⚠ The price trend and leading indicators disagree — momentum may be running ahead of the fundamentals.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2019
$100K invested 2019-05 → today (7.3 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $193K━ S&P 500 $314K━ Gold $338K━ Luxury $179K━ Housing $161K₿ Bitcoin $908K (off-scale)
Solid store of value, but lagged the stock market. The Dodge Viper (2013-2017) ACR roughly 1.9×'d your money (a real, inflation-adjusted 1.5× gain). It LAGGED the stock market by about 38% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It beat housing (+20%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) leads by about 14 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.77). Shown shifted forward 14 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Trade-Weighted Dollar Index leads by about 3 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.69). Shown shifted forward 3 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Dodge Viper (2013-2017) ACR┄ Trade-Weighted Dollar Index, shifted +3mo
WTI Crude Oil leads by about 15 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.67). Shown shifted forward 15 months so its turns line up with the market's.
30-Year Mortgage Rate leads by about 6 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.65). Shown shifted forward 6 months so its turns line up with the market's.
US Regular Gas Price leads by about 18 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.64). Shown shifted forward 18 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Dodge Viper (2013-2017) ACR┄ US Regular Gas Price, shifted +18mo
Effective Fed Funds Rate leads by about 1 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.63). Shown shifted forward 1 months so its turns line up with the market's.
2-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 5 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.61). Shown shifted forward 5 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 4 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.61). Shown shifted forward 4 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Dodge Viper (2013-2017) ACR┄ Case-Shiller National Home Price, shifted +4mo
Why We Think This
Appreciation Momentum
45
Undervaluation
20
Liquidity
40
Speculation Opportunity
26
Depreciation Risk
57
Overvaluation
73
asking +197% vs historic soldasking vs historic spread
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$101,292 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-44,000 vs prior
price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-73.0)
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$101,292 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-44,000 vs prior
price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-65.2)
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.