Flagged undervalued because -56% vs 2-yr avg, and -55% vs 3-yr trend.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 37 yr, 39k mi example, ~$17.3K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 183 confirmed auction sales·61 months tracked·since 2021-07·133 active listings
Did our model work? 63% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 35 scored forecasts: 63% got the direction right, median value error ±48%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
UP
51%
Low
63%
12 mo
UP
51%
Low
63%
24 mo
UP
52%
Low
65%
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. High-Yield Bond Spread has historically led it by about 17 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE credit spreads fell 6%. THEREFORE, given its usual 17-month head start, we lean DOWN — about −2% (≈ −$268) over the next 17 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation +0.48, 21 months overlap).
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 75% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment and WTI Crude Oil, though Nasdaq Composite points the other way.
⚠ The price trend and leading indicators disagree — momentum may be running ahead of the fundamentals.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-07 → today (5.0 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $113K━ S&P 500 $187K━ Gold $225K━ Luxury $83.1K━ Housing $125K₿ Bitcoin $155K (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Pontiac Firebird (1982-1992) Trans Am roughly 1.1×'d your money (a real 8% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 40% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-10%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 17 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.52). Shown shifted forward 17 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Pontiac Firebird (1982-1992) Trans Am┄ High-Yield Bond Spread, shifted +17mo
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 17 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.48). Shown shifted forward 17 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Pontiac Firebird (1982-1992) Trans Am┄ High-Yield Bond Spread, shifted +17mo
U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment leads by about 12 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.48). Shown shifted forward 12 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Pontiac Firebird (1982-1992) Trans Am┄ U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment, shifted +12mo
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 5 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.47). Shown shifted forward 5 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Pontiac Firebird (1982-1992) Trans Am┄ High-Yield Bond Spread, shifted +5mo
Russell 2000 (small cap) leads by about 0 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.46). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Pontiac Firebird (1982-1992) Trans Am┄ Russell 2000 (small cap), shifted +0mo
Housing Starts leads by about 2 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.42). Shown shifted forward 2 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Pontiac Firebird (1982-1992) Trans Am┄ Housing Starts, shifted +2mo
WTI Crude Oil leads by about 11 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.42). Shown shifted forward 11 months so its turns line up with the market's.
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-2,500 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$3,500 vs prior
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.