The Pontiac Firebird (1982-1992) Trans Am market anticipates an 'up' direction with probabilities from 0.54 to 0.59 over the next 6 to 24 months, but within a volatile regime. The market currently exhibits an overvaluation score of 59.8, a depreciation risk of 56.93, and liquidity at 35.59. The High-Yield Bond Spread serves as the strongest leading indicator with a correlation of -0.6 and a 10-month lead.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 37 yr, 29k mi example, ~$19.4K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 199 confirmed auction sales·64 months tracked·since 2021-07·125 active listings
Did our model work? 68% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 38 scored forecasts: 68% got the direction right, median value error ±33%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
UP
53%
Low
68%
12 mo
UP
55%
Low
68%
24 mo
UP
58%
Low
77%
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (moderate conviction — 48% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Nasdaq Composite and Housing Starts, though Nasdaq Composite points the other way.
Trend and leading indicators agree — both point up. Higher-conviction read.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-07 → today (5.2 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $115K━ S&P 500 $193K━ Gold $226K━ Luxury $65.4K━ Housing $127K₿ Bitcoin $196K (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Pontiac Firebird (1982-1992) Trans Am roughly 1.2×'d your money (a real 7% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 40% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-10%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) leads by about 13 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.53). Shown shifted forward 13 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Gold (futures) leads by about 9 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.52). Shown shifted forward 9 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Pontiac Firebird (1982-1992) Trans Am┄ Gold (futures), shifted +9mo
Dow Jones Industrial leads by about 2 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.52). Shown shifted forward 2 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Pontiac Firebird (1982-1992) Trans Am┄ Dow Jones Industrial, shifted +2mo
Nasdaq Composite leads by about 13 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.51). Shown shifted forward 13 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Pontiac Firebird (1982-1992) Trans Am┄ Nasdaq Composite, shifted +13mo
Advance Retail Sales leads by about 8 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.51). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
S&P 500 leads by about 14 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.50). Shown shifted forward 14 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Pontiac Firebird (1982-1992) Trans Am┄ S&P 500, shifted +14mo
Silver leads by about 9 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.48). Shown shifted forward 9 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Pontiac Firebird (1982-1992) Trans Am┄ Silver, shifted +9mo
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 17 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.48). Shown shifted forward 17 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Pontiac Firebird (1982-1992) Trans Am┄ Case-Shiller National Home Price, shifted +17mo
Why We Think This
Appreciation Momentum
52
Undervaluation
46
Liquidity
34
Speculation Opportunity
50
Depreciation Risk
57
Overvaluation
63
sell-through 61%sell through rate
inventory -0%inventory trend slope
asking +16% vs historic soldasking vs historic spread
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-12,000 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$5,223 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.